A scantily clothed scooter hunched over on a sidewalk in a remote village, rocking back and forth feeding the monkies while murmuring to himself....."they stole my circle jerk"..."they stole my circle jerk". Concerned natives continue to gather around conversing amongst themselves in native tongue...
Yes, absolutely. Any ENSO state, including neutral, can "trainwreck" a winter...however, super el nino is far more likely than any other to do so. Furthermore, the ceiling for a winter is much higher for a strong vs "super" el nino.
Yea, same....I hadn't researched it until he mentioned it. Like I said, he does like to push buttons, but I wouldn't call him a troll bc he also brings something to the table.
Not sure I buy his dismissal of vp due to pre Sat era and inadequate sample size of east based events...it stands to reason why the vp pattern differs from other east based events due to the west PAC warmth.
That is what I meant, yea....either, or. Ironically it could work to our advantage for once. It acted to nullify modest attempts at ENSO in '18 and '19 and may be acting to modify an attempt at an intense event here.