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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Jan 2003
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    If that verifies, you can probably cancel the canonical el Nino claims.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Quote yourself and reply with a
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet we end up with like normal snowfall across the area during December.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I consider 1972 as strong because I factor in MEI, as well...so if its at all close via ONI I used that to decide.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I've updated to incorporate 1979-1980 into the weak intensity and Modoki composite graphics.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it did....about 5 mi to my NW....I joking said to someone that I would be just SE of the "bad" snow
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    One of the many reasons that I love high water content snowfall.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think this season will be quite as blocky and that season also had a strongly +PDO, but its a great ENSO analog....personally, I like 1965 better as a general analog.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Glad you had some snow to lift the spirits.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just an unreal 5+ year stretch of brutal luck here....not a flake. The east wind cooked this area, so glad I ignored it. Always either too far north, east or south. The regional impact is something that I probably would have blogged about during the winter, but I wasn't firing up early for that crap lol
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The west Pacific warm pool is the result of Chris urinating in the collective cheerios of winter weenies for about the past decade lol
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    December is going to feature a positive NAO in the mean....just accept that....especially if we see a substantial warming of the polar stratosphere and accompanying weakening of the PV, as the circumstances that trigger that often produce a warmer outcome and unfavorable patterns for winter enthusiasts in the short term. The desired impact is delayed often up to about 30 days while the stratospheric warming ideally propagates downward to the troposphere where it directly alters our weather.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Chris is a bright guy, but don't let him catch you smiling, or else he will point out a multi decadal trend away from whatever made you smile.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I get the risk with the PDO....I was just explaining what a traditional Modoki configuration looks like.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Weak el Nino/Modoki Hadley Cell Configuration
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch how whomever is ultimately wrong reacts...any equivocation or moving of the goals posts should be followed by a credibility drain.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nope, the pre satelite era biases the MEI towards Modoki....see, this is why all of the most powerful MEI values were obtained in east-based, canonical events.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    This. We will know shortly which ENSO ideology is correct.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could be the best holiday period pattern since 2009 and 2010.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch for a big holiday period event focused over interior...my analogs scream it. Should be first major of the season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That looks very similar to my December mean composite, but it should get mitigated by the cooler start and finish.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes because that Hadley Cell configuration would pop a big Aleutian low due north of that warmest water just east of the dateline, which would pop a ridge near the west coast (also ridging near the pole). This is why folks keep wating for el Nino to couple more and "battle" the -PDO and why I expect the PNA to average somewhat positive this season, regardless.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, I get that...I went over both aspects ad nauseam in my work. However, its folly to ignore the the fact that the atmospheric response is different from past higher-end events.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great met, but loves him some warm. His outlook was reasonable, though....pretty similar to mine.
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