40/70 Benchmark

You may need some this December.

I don't expect to be that cold due to differences in the Pacific and a slightly more canonical el Nino, but there should be some huggies.

I would want to be around and outside of I 495 early.

May end up with an ONI near the top of my 1.7 to 1.9 range.

Check out the comparison between the early December forcing and January 2003.....lends confidence to my conclusion of an interior focused start to the season.

Agreed. But to be fair, no one expects wall-to-wall cold and snow, so I have no issue with some periods of east-based forcing....makes sense to me....just like 2016 wasn't endless east-based forcing, this one won't be endless Modoki forcing....they are both basin-wide events.

January 2003 looks like it had the dual forcing that Chris pointed out.

I need to look at it more, but I expect the month to be serviceable...maybe normal snowfall for the coast and above inland? I don't feel as though it will be a cold month, but I don't expect a blow torch that is devoid of snow near the coast. I do expect a significant storm around the holidays.

I could see a thaw in early January before we go more favorable again later in the month.

Of course, just in time for Christmas Eve My feeling on that is that its probably temporary, as we also saw a period of east-based forcing during the fall, as well...but it just didn't last. Also, if you recall, January 2016 had a period of Modoki like forcing that coincided with the blizzard, so we need to remember that there are periods that deviate from the DM mean state....everyone agrees that is in fact a basin-wide event, and not a true Modoki, so some stretches of east-based forcing shouldn't shock anyone.

Yes.

I feel as though you have done a great job of learning and toning down your enthusiasm, but it seems to me that you are now overcompensating in the other direction. We are probably going to see a significant snowfall right to the coast this December if that modeled pattern materializes. December typically doesn't feature a negative NAO during the month of December in Ninos.

I've been saying at all fall....stop being afraid of el Nino....when the forcing sets up where it has, it's your friend, not foe... ignore the silly crap from Webber and Roundy about how the vp doesn't matter. This is why.

Canonical east-based super-Nino?

I didn't blog on this event....wasn't worth it for an inch or two on the hill tops.

UGH. I got a bad feeling when I saw posts in this thread tonight.

I ended up with 40.5"....I was just far enough north to not get totally skunked.

Not to mention that west coast trough won't be to Baja.

Snowman must have missed this Webber tweet.

I am more interested in how he responds once it becomes clear that he is wrong. You find out who the real forecasters are when they miss one.

I just do it to gather info..especially when doing my Outlooks...but I seldom engage

1.82" total rainfall.

Another one of my favorite analogs also featured a PV disruption around that time frame, 1986-1987..different Pacific look, though....1986-1987 has the same issue that I told you 1957-1958 had, though it is a better polar analog IMO. Primary Polar Analogs: 1965-1966, 1986-1987, 2002-2003, 2004-2005

Makes sense to me: The Sun and Stratosphere Collaboratively Modulate the Polar Domain Research conducted by Gray et al expanded on the notion that Easterly QBO seasons are more prone to polar vortex disruptions by postulating that the timing of Sudden Stratospheric Warmings (SSW) maybe dictated by interactions between the solar cycle and the QBO in the upper stratosphere, where increased sensitivity and solar cycle amplitude compensate for decreased QBO amplitude. "Solar and QBO signals in the upper equatorial stratosphere where the 11 year solar cycle has its maximum amplitude and the QBO has a small but not insignificant amplitude"(Gray et al 2004). The theory goes onto posit that the easterly QBO helps to establish the presence of an Aleutian high, which expedites the SSW process when superimposed over a solar minimum and results in early season SSW. This is confirmed by the research of @griteater, which reveals that 11/13 seasons featured a SSW and 6/11 SSW events in the el Nino/E QBO data set occurred by no later than January. There has been some subtle suggestion by the long range European guidance of a polar vortex (PV) disruption at some point during the month of December. However, while this is the favored outcome, any such occurrence is likely to take place around the holidays or perhaps even after the New Year and may initially be rushed and/or exaggerated by guidance. Conversely, westerly QBO coupled with near solar max, which was the case in the 1991-1992 and 1994-1995 seasons, delays SSWs until late in the season if one takes place at at all, which is less likely. The el Nino + QBO data set yielded 5/7 SSWs taking place in January or later and occurred at all in only 6/13 seasons. In years such as 2023, when the signals diverge (nearing solar max/E QBO), the research indicates that there is no significant impact on timing. However, the easterly QBO in conjunction with an ascending, but not yet solar max may still slightly favor a more disturbed PV during the early to middle portion of this season. DJF Disturbed PV During E QBO (Courtesy of Flis) This is especially the case when considering the best potential QBO analogs this season. Analyzing the QBO data at both the 30mb and 50m level, the winter seasons of 1986-1987 and 2009-2010 stand out at as strikingly similar at both levels and each were also el Nino seasons with easterly QBO during the ascending phase of the solar cycle, as is the case in 2023. Oct-86 Oct-09 Oct-23 30MB QBO -9.60 -11.69 -16.98 50MB QBO 0.43 3.69 1.60 The season of 1986-1987 is of course one of the discussed basin-wide analogs and featured a major PV disruption during the month of January (Note the similarity to the DJF E QBO PV composite above) following a relatively benign month of December.

1957 and 1965 were the two best ENSO analogs...they were quite the focus in my work.