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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    EURO is a carbon copy of 2022-2023...wow. Just a hair less amplified with the RNA, which could still work for a lot of NE.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    CFS looks even better, but qualitatively similar.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Watch, NYC will get 10" this December and a trace the rest of the season.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I like the orientation of the PV, though that is tough to predict on a seasnal level.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I neglected the WPO that season and it completely burned me, so I would caution against doing that for those pessimists.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Big difference from 2022-2023 is the WPO, as I intimated above and raindance has been hinting at all off season.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is something I have come around on...I was skeptical of it a couple of years ago. However, I still don't think well placed blocking is as futile as it has appeared the past few years, as there also has been some shit luck involved.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think that pattern would evolve very favorably given winter wavelengths.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Bias comes in a multitude of different varieties for a plethora of various reasons...we need to be just every bit as mindful of not allowing a recency bias to team with growing frustration to compomise objectivity as we do our innate desires and preferences.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    March
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    February...call me crazy, but I wouldn't call this horrific for the north.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Even assuming the model is a bit too cold by default due to CC....this is a horrific January?
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    December looks pretty -WPO to me....I think that could even work into the northern mid atl.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    The mean seasonal RNA is not going to be that amplified again and there is nothing anybody can say that will convince me otherwise. Just out of sheer probability alone, nevermind La Nina being significantly weaker....regardless of how intense the PDO remains. Lipstick on a pig, certaintly, but it is what it is and I will take my chances relative to last season.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point being that I will take what is posted above over this knowing how useless the NAO has been in the face of an uttelry hostile Pacific.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this why snowflall has a ton of variance. But for say about the latitude of CNE points north, those charts don't even look that bad to me.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, we have heard about 746 times about this mismatch needed to ever snow again below the latitude of Caribou, ME. I wasn't challenging anything. Simply speaking anecdotally. I will go out on a limb and say its not going to be warmer or have less snow than last season....those images could be worse for NE. That looks like some pretty decent poleward Aleutian ridging.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hey, the consensus clearly missed something this summer and fall, so hopefully it misses siomething with respect to the winter.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Haven't you posted on several occasions something to the effect that +NAO has been coinciding with +PNA and -NAO with RNA??
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    No big sou' easter this weekend?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    43.2
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    You basically described 1996-1997 winter and no, we don't consider that season epic.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    1973 is a decent analog....2013, not so much.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Interesting and probably coincidentally, 1970 is the only high solar La Nina that was great for snowfall in the NE.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, that goes without saying.
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