40/70 Benchmark

That is just about the time I was envisioning for a concerted change to a more wintery pattern...even independent of this.

We are going to need to see something unprecedented in order for this el nino to BOTH register as a super event relative to the warmer globe AND couple strongly enough to influence the hemisphere at a level commensurate with an event of that magnitude. Period. Using history as a guide it would appear as the former is more likely than the latter, which makes sense considering the state of the cool ENSO dominated hemisphere over the course of the last several years...some of that energy will be spent forcing change instead of actually dictating the ROSBY wave train, etc....almost akin to virga whereas it doesn't actually precipitate until the moisture triggers a tipping point...AKA saturation. What the preponderance of evidence is conveying is that it will take time to elicit a response from the atmosphere and that matters.

RONI growth from JJA value to peak 1982 1.65 1997 .74 2015 1.11 MEI growth from JA value to peak 1982 .8 1997 .1 2015 .2 Lets assume an aggressive 1982 like growth curve for the balance of the fall into the cold season.... RONI peak of 2.25 MEI peak of 1.2

So the central half of ENSO, where it matters most, is cooler, and the MEI and RONI a mere fraction of 2015 as a reflection of a warmer western Pacific.....but nothing to see here.

I guess there is some alternate universe where that doesn't matter, but in my version of reality it most certainly does.

JJA 2015 1.24 JJA 2023 0.57 2015 0.2 0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 2023 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

We are already running behind 2015 everywhere except 1.2 and 4 (aside from MEI and RONI), so losing more ground would be notable. 16SEP2015 22.8 2.1 27.2 2.3 28.6 2.0 29.6 0.9 20SEP2023 23.5 2.8 27.0 2.1 28.3 1.7 29.9 1.2

I really, really like a tamer version of 2015 as an ENSO analog...which is certainly not necessarily a death knell for eastern snow hounds

The weekly reading of 1.7 is the highest yet.

Lets keep this going into winter...imagine at day 4 going from P Sunny and 45 to 30".

I'm pretty confident that it will be blockier than that composite.

Lo of 37.6...refreshing.

Yes, and just to be clear....this doesn't: 1) Assume the MEI remains weak 2) Ensure a snowy wiinter even if it were to, as there are plenty of other reasons why winter could be very mild with a relatively meager MEI.

I think this is what is captured by the RONI and MEI....which I referred back to in a follow up query that when unacknowledged.

He has said himself it isn't going to be a super el nino...which is all that is being implied. Doesn't mean a blockbuster winter for the east necessarily. You can't win with him....if you view things differently than he does, then you're "stupid", or an "idiot" or lazy....but god help you if your forecast shares similarities to his, then you copied his work. Compliment him and its met with silence....anything less than that elicits an adversarial response. The course of least regret is probably simply to ignore and to allow him to stew in his own venom.

37.8

38.5

Snowman is gonna need to deliver another +IOD sermon in order to prop the 'ole morale back up after that graph

Well, you may want to let webbieweather in on your dirty little secret.

Yea, I just mentioned the RONI and MEI again and let it go.....these public figures can get pretty cagey and defensive when challenged on Twitter in front of followers....its like a school yard bully being challenged in front of his friends.

All nice winters except for 1994 and 2006, which had a supernova PV....lends itself to my point about the polar domain being crucial this year.

This is what is so frustrating about seasonal forecasting....its so easy to cherry pick data to suite whichever argument or angle one would like.

The W PAC does look cooler in the image that he presented...

Hadn't noticed this last night...here is his response to me.