40/70 Benchmark

raindance's tentative main analog

Eh....I verify based on official intensity. No doubt in my mind we aren't seeing sustained 90mph sustained winds anywhere on land...even 75, I doubt.

One small error I may have made was to overestimate how much the degradation of the prelandfall environment will weaken the system...as a cat 1 hurricane can sustain itself in far less than ideal conditions and I could have been more mindful of that. I could see it coming in a bit stronger than my 75mph LF call, even though I got the max intensity correct.

Yea, its not that rare...even in a shitty pattern since the wavelengths are different and warm SSTs aren't really a factor for Brian.

The wager is concerning Northfield, not Tolland. Not sure what Kev's ruler has to do with this.

My push back is more driven by how remote the chances are for the sports side of that wager than me expecting October snowfall for Dendrite....but he is not SNE, either....he can pull snow out of a chicken's rectum at least excuse imaginable.

1) Averages decline fairly steadily during the month of October 2) Exceedingly difficult to predice said magnitude of anomalies at one month plus lead time. 3) Obviously one trend we have been observing during this advanced rate of CC is warmer weather on average, but we have also seen sudden and intense cold spells during the autumn before it ultimately warms for early winter. 4) Jacoby Brisett is the starting QB and Robert Kraft spends more on hand jobs than his football team. 5) The Red Sox just lost to the worst team in the history of MLB and spend less on the team than Kraft does on handies. Mic drop-

Then a light event in October? No way...much better odds of a light event for Dendrite.

Seriously, though....I do like that analog, but probably not as lucky and a bit more blocky. If things go badly, 1999 is also a good analog.

Nah...you had 142.7"? I'm not that foolish.....can't have that level of specificity on a seasonal level. Call it 143".

Pissah video.

I get why some feel that way now, but I'm pretty sure that it will move west and into a central/hybrid event.

Common theme I have seen on seasonal guidance is active N stream, which makes sense given ENSO.

I broke my neck trying to interpret that relative to the east coast, but that looks pretty gradient laden.....PV is really elongated se, so NE would probably make out well.

We have raindance optimistic for the east...if we could ever get you on board in October, I think I'd travel to Times Square and do nude handstands in traffic.

I'm not as gung-ho as he is....really not a fan of the 2013 analog that he loves...but hopefully he's right again. He is hands-down the best seasonal forecast that I have ever read or interacted with.

Went entirely as anticipated with a brief window last night during which the winds jumped up to be more in line with the minimum central pressure. Should come in as a marginal cane, but like pope said...main threats are associated with water.

Agree, but I just mean for purposes of verification.

90mph peak....AWT.

I don't buy the guidance that furnaces Canada.

I think raindance said he expected the WPO to flip in October...wouldn't matter much for most of the east coast, but maybe the NE and def the midwest.

These are related......I'll bet we see the winds play catch up for a window overnight.

Former IMO....hard to imagine a pinhole eye given the organizational deficiencies (diffuse CDO) and envt. flaws (competing convection).