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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Final mow of 2023 in the books.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that makes sense. The season will probably finish above average, but could still be snowy stretches.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I don't think anyone is thinking cold December in the east.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....closer to neutral or slightly positive...which is what I implied. What is being referenced by snowman19, etc is a power house seasonal PV.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I can totally a buy a strong PV early on that biases the season in the aggregate, but I seriously doubt a Pinatubo style impact. I'm relatively confident that we will see a period(s) of major blocking, as was the case last season.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    We just had @griteaterposting a site claiming that it was fully ingested by the polar strat by last January. I agree that its worthy of consideration, but I think its very dubious that we see a wall-to-wall juggernaut PV.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can find a study to support whatever timeframe you would like...pick your study. What we do know is that following Pinatubo, we had a severely +AO winter beginning immediately the next season and lasting several years...what we have now are some people continuing to move the goal posts to imply it takes 2 years to have an impact this case. Sorry, but I call BS.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why didn't it have that impact last winter? Maybe I'm wrong, but from what I have read and observed, I really don't think it will have much of an impact.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    .08" on the day.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this is what my research bared out...even with a -PDO.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had zero interest in Lee, so this won't cut it.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    The focus will probably by NYS and NE in December, then the focus will shift southward later in January and into February.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its like most other tools...there is some utility, but its not the silver bullet of seasonal forecasting that it was originally made out to be.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I only go back to 1950.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think December will suck for you guys, but it won't matter given the pattern that should evolve later.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I probably would too if I lived down there....even up here its getting tougher to remain objective....last good season for me was 2017-2018.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    +3SD anomaly on the self-induced ice cream headache index.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't get that impression at all....I mean, its not frigid and there are times when the cold will dump west early on, but looks like plenty of ridging over the eastern Pac and AK.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have a sneaking suspicion that no one is changing their mind about anything.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    You will probably like December more than February. I just want a serviceable pattern in December and we have just that, as modeled. Anything early on is gravy.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Certainly the cold dumps west...that's why I mentioned 2018-2019. Its not December 1995, but nor is it Dec 2015.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had 26.7" in Dec 1967....even if you lop several inches off for CC, I would take it and sprint.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is my take on the Euro look....there is a big ridge just off of the west coast, so its more like a la nina look....you don't have the PAC firehose eradicating all of the cold from the CONUS like you do in those traditional "game over" el nino months of December. I think the interior especially would do okay.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    December should be the worst month...but I feel like we will catch some breaks. It probably won't be snowless during the entire solar nadir.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    And latitude.
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