40/70 Benchmark

Yea, the December change better aligns with my thoughts.

100%. Great post.

No one doubted it would recover in short order, otherwise it would peak at moderate ONI, which no one thought was possible since early last spring.

.30"

Yes.

I tend to use large data sets in my composites, which is why the anomalies often seem toned down...but same general idea.

2009 isn't an east-based el nino, but agree its a decent analog. Here is my blend for September...there are plenty of more modest ENSO matches in there.

Sounds wild, to be sure

I can't think of a physical reason, aside from maybe the unfavorable Pacific not allowing the s stream to amplify enough to run the orgy all the way up the coast.

Yes.

The ONI belies the true nature of this el nino event because its an archaic metric. This is why I bombed operating under the premise of a modest el nino a few years back when in fact there was no el nino.

More evidence that this event is not going to be the juggernaut that some thought is this article that classified el nino events by their evolution and intensity. Historical change of El Niño properties sheds light on future changes of extreme El Niño (pnas.org) "Strong-Basin wide", "Moderate east pacific" and Moderate Central Pacific". Acccording to this piece, the current event is NOT a strong basin wide event, but a rather a dead-ringer for moderate-east based event in that it: 1) Followed a la nina 2) Began biased extremely east and is propagating westward. In fact, it even specifically infers that classification based soley on location of maximum anomalies would mix strong basin wide and moderate east based events. I think many are mistaking this event for a SBW when in fact, if you examine the evolution, its a moderate east based event. This is also consistent with the MEI and RONI.

The RONI is a nice provisional tool in the interim, but the ONI ultimately needs to be revisited.

I am firmly of the opinion that the ONI is a forecasting relic given the warming planet.....there needs to be higher thresholds....ie declare el nino at like 1.0 and have strong be 2.0 and super 2.5.

Mar 2010 -0.16 Feb 2010 0.25 Jan 2010 0.05 Dec 2009 -0.51

Modestly negative.

Honestly, -PDO seasons often have an area that gets screwed, but its not always the mid Atlantic....its often further north. I t could be my area.

I think is going to be an active STJ and N stream.

Never been on board for that. I'm in your camp on that range.

It should peak at moderate IMO.

Man, what a shitty day...

Sad day....lost a friend of over 20 years late last night/early this AM....got a sinking feeling when his brother called me on my way to work. Just brutal.

Hopefully not.

5.2" will do, but a jack, nonetheless....a CJ of water lol

True, though I was close this AM.....balmy first half of October, nonetheless.