40/70 Benchmark

Same tactic Webber was employing last week....it washes out the western Pac warmth and evades the issue of the MEI/RONI that cannot be answered for.

Any residual thinly veiled semblance of optimism for a serviceable winter in the east.

Up and in.

That December pattern reminds me of the 2018-2019 season...hopefully some better luck this December.

That looks like a gradient pattern for our area in December....issue will be is the gradient near Concord, NH, like last winter, or more bodily into SNE.

Of course, from my back yard points north is warm in both composites lol

Worth it to me....getting out of the shower and stepping into a sonar of a bathroom is awful...takes forever to dry off.

Not very....gonna focus on the next 5 months first lol

Next year is another big la nina, so this may be my one shot to get the first good season since 2017-2018.

Of course, the warmest anomalies are on a fetch due NE of Methuen, MA.

Was he gnawing on last winter?

That would be tedious because in reference to what Scott said, you have to find a way to control for synopitc patterns, as well.....no one worries about SST when you have a 1050 over Montreal.

Could be some pratty gnarly CFs this season....CJs so aggressive they cause chaffing.

Right...it largely augments already mild patterns and caps radiational cooling. While it can impact very marginal situations, it doesn't play much of a role during many precipitation events. I do think the record warm Atlantic could play a factor this season to a degree, though.

I think you will really see that this year.

Yea, those are my thoughts....around my area. I probably get closer to a foot than 7" of compacted slush.

Party @bluewave's ranch.

CC probably cost me several inches last year...that is fair....especially in that early March-nipple event. What I have an issue with is people claiming a PV phased further west due to CC....while plausible, that is quite a leap that requires lifetimes worth of data to validate sufficiently.

One thing I learned last season is to stop ignoring ENSO after I post the outlook. I am going to need to continue ENSO updates in season because I would have bailed on mid winter before the new year had I done that last season. It was clear it was shifting west and going modoki.

I mean, did I expect us to cash in more than we did, absolutely....in terms of snowfall. Fail. However, I really had a pretty good grasp of the pattern overall with the exception of ENSO orientation...another fail. I simply failed to adequately capture how aggressively la nina would shift to modoki. I also missed the true magnitude of what turned out to be a record cold phase of the Pacific....which is exceedingly difficult to do for the world's strongest computers at 10 days lead, never mind on a seasonal level. This is why you always see "smoothed" solutions among long term ensemble means.

And it did....what you need to wrap your mind around is that a good pattern setting up and nuances dictating an unfavorable track relative to your back yard are not mutually exclusive. That was a damn good look just before Xmas last year.

Yea, I am of the camp that the PDO will rise, but still average negative. But that should be good enough with decent blocking.

Yea, every bit as irrelevant as the last one and more.

Who??? I think DT originally was thinking big, but he caught on quickly in December....Cosgrove never really backed off, but who else?? I was normalish, which didn't work out due to the record -PDO, but I was right on with respect to the polar fields.

Very likely to be somewhat warm in the DM mean, but if get 30" in January and 40" in February, raise your hand if you'll care?