40/70 Benchmark

I only touched this bc I'm bored....kind of like at the end of a party....."I'm drunk, you're gross, let's go".

Tropics Awaken as Tropical Storm Francine to Approach Louisiana as Hurricane Landfall as Minimal Hurricane likely Wednesday Night The Situation: Despite the very long lull in the 2024 hurricane season, activity has resumed just in time for the climatological peak of the season today. As of 11AM EDT, the center of tropical storm Francine is located near latitude 24.9N and longitude 95.6W, or about 425mi southwest of Morgan City, LA. The system continues to gradual intensify with a current minimum central pressure of 988MB and maximum sustained winds near 65MPH. It is important to note that Francine has now began the awaited turn towards the NNE at 8MPH and this general motion is anticipated to continue through landfall on the Louisiana coast Wednesday night due to a couple of different large scale synoptic factors. Track Forecast: The slow turn of Francine to the NNE this morning is primarily attributable to its passing on the northwestern flank of a subtropical ridge centered over the southeastern Gulf of Mexico. However, the system is forecast to accelerate in this same general direction when it falls under the influence of an approaching trough tomorrow, which will cause its movement to the north-northeast to accelerate. Guidance is on fairly strong agreement on this scenario. The trough currently over the desert southwest will not only impact the future track of Francine, but it will also have important ramifications on the ultimate landfall intensity in southern Louisiana. Intensity Forecast: There are currently mixed signals upon analysis of Francine's current internal structure. The system is clearly making steady, albeit deliberate strides towards hurricane intensity, as evidenced by the developing eastern eye wall seen in the microwave imagery below. On the other hand, the central dense overcast (CDO) continues to remain rather diffuse and disorganized with a large cluster of competing convection positioned to the northeast. It is this in conjunction with perhaps some dry air entrapment off of mainland Mexico that has inhibited the intensification process thus far. However, as the system begins to distance itself from Mainland Mexico this afternoon and into tonight, there maybe a window for a more significant period of intensification overnight as the system passes over a warmer eddy of water over the Gulf of Mexico to the west of southern Texas. The window for intensification will close around dawn on Wednesday, as the circulation of Francine begins to entrain some drier air from that same approaching trough that is causing the acceleration to the north and northeast. It is with this in mind that the peak intensity of around 90MPH should be achieved either late tonight or during the early morning hours of Wednesday. Francine will also encounter a zone of higher wind shear over the northern Gulf of Mexico during the daylight hours of Wednesday in association with the approaching system. This combination of increasing wind shear and drier air should induce a steady weakening after dawn on Wednesday through landfall Wednesday night as a marginal hurricane First & Final Call: The primary threats with Francine will be flooding and tornado risk given the significant wind shear aloft. Wind damage should be relatively minimal and confined to unpopulated marshland.

Here is my first and final stab at this one. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/09/tropics-awaken-as-tropical-storm.html

That fuels my idea about a potential 2007-2008 get out of fail free card for parts of NE if all else goes to shit.

I think that tells you all you ned to know about the degradation of the envt. on approach to the coast tomorrow.

That other blob is a non-starter for any RI....take that clear off of the table.

I think it looks okay for a TS nearing cane strength....not great.

I think the best window for intensification will be overnight tonight, as it gets a bit further from mainland MX and perhaps passess over an eddy of very high TCHP before the more hostile conditions set in tomorrow.

In terms of the consensus, I agree...this is why I qualified my statement with the term "relative".....all that was meant was the window for higher end that appeared to be opening a bit yesterday has closed.

Yea, I didn't think it was that difficult to grasp.

First of all, many were speculating on a 3 and some guidance was even hinting at 4. Secondly, I think cat 2 is a reach at this point. I think maybe 100mph is the ceiling, which jives with the NHC stating that their 100mph forecast was at the high end of guidance.

I don't think its going to become as strong as some were speculating. Should still be a hurricane, though. The operative word in my statement was relative.

I think you overstate the significance of the timing. The very amplifed pattern out west was the much larger issue than the timing....it sucked in December and it sucked in March. You aren't getting much snow in the mid atl with a trough that deep out west...doesn't matter when it is.

I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.

I think Francine is going to be a relative bust, which is a microcosm of the season.....there is a reason why I have jumped to blog about it. I will probably put a one-and-done post out today, though.

Yes...I was skeptical of that 2 years ago, but I'm now ready to buy that element of CC after getting burned badly. However, I think for New England its still not as bad as it appears because there was some bad luck. Mid Atl its game over in that pattern now....and def. more precarious for SNE.

Both good analogs IMO.

I have always thought that was a given- Its still a bit more east-based than I thought it would be, which should change.

Yea, I never doubted you on that....I recall all too vividly how many times RNA has deprived us the spoils of the NAO blocking over the course of the past few seasons....especially in 12/22 and 3/23.

Not too engaged on this one, but my inclincation is that final LF intensity will be comparable to Beryl in TX.

44.8

I don't weight it too much per se, but @Stormchaserchuck1's NAO formula was pretty dead nuts on the mean of my polar analogs as of a few weeks ago...though I think this has gotten more positive.

Agree. Perhaps the WPO/EPO behave similarly, but I think the PDO and La Nina are bad matches.

I think 2007 is a pretty good analog...not perfect. Not a huge fan of 2013.

That was my snowiest month of December on record.