40/70 Benchmark

Well, no coincidence that my 10th annual outlook comes just 4 months prior to the 10th anniversary of my late dad's passing. The effort is dedicated to him. He would always ask me about the weather in an effort to redirect me when I was upset because he knew that was always a safe place for me. What I have learned is that while you can not cure addiction, you can adapt, and evolve in order to foster the insight necessary to redirect that energy away from destructive activities and towards more constructive channels. That being said, I hope you folks enjoy the effort, as this place was an invaluable escape for me during some of the darkest periods of my life. https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/11/winter-23-24-will-be-lesson-in.html

Thanks...going to include it this year, as it is part of a very strong consensus.

Kinda daring with smart phones and social media these days....

Interesting that the spread is for more negative NAO in December, and its a large spread for such short term.

@Stormchaserchuck1Do you have the SST plot that goes with your forumula?

Clearly the trend is for +NAO December and negative NAO February, but can anyone elaborate on how exactly to interpret this graphic? Does the bar extension represent spread?

It will hit 2.0 in the dailies, but not ONI.

The best seasonal forecasters are wrong significantly more than they are right....I am not trying to shit on him.

That is text-book eastern pants tent....that map is higher-end ceiling like potential.

This is why Roundy is behind the curve with respect to this event IMO....he is an expert on yesterday's climate. The Belicheck of the ENSO community.

Yea, we agree for the most part.....winter won't be very cold and el Nino has not peaked, but it is close IMO. The major WWB is to the west....the one coming east isn't that big of a deal. This is the final push. The thrust of warmer subsurface is still mainly west IMO.

NBD, just uploaded via cell.

Strange...I get them on my cell, though.

Is it just me, or are these images not showing up for others? Both desktop and laptop....

This is accounted for in assuming a range of 1.7 to 1.9 ONI, IMO....we NEED another push to get that-

12/2...say 2pmish.

Post the Dec weeklies

F-U...leaving the one I have. lol

People see this and spontaneously ejac.....its a long, methodical process.....and it will probably initially augment the PV in the general vicinity of the holidays.

Probably over the weekend at some point....had aimed for Friday, but the laptop catastrophe burned a lot of yesterday....updating a lot of graphics today. I think you guys will like it....conveyed my message in pretty unique way that a SNE weather weenie will appreciate.

I was selling the blocky December crap.

Having an outlook this long affords one the luxury of needing to go back and update graphics that have aged a few weeks in the process of writing.

About 75% done...has @griteaterupdated his MEI graphs after that abomination of an October value? Shield you eyes, snowman lol

I had some IP this AM...joy. Back to writing.