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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense considering how I expect December to unfold....look at the EURO .....+NAO. Cohen is just having an impulsive outburst, which people are prone to do on social media.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Someone run a composite of 1966, 1969, 1987 and 2003...it probably looks like the Euro.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree with this...good post. This, like the PDO analogs, is confirmation that this winter will be decided within the polar domain.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not really....98-99 was awful, 2016-2017 and 83-84 were meh.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was expecting that.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what I point out in his Twitter thread and he never addressed it.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. This is why I feel like we will also have an active N stream this winter.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Webb is completely unhinged.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, no one is going super-cold. That said, sign me up for 1965, 1968 and 2004 from that composite.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that is consistent with my findings...not sure where he is coming from with this.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Apparently 1997 was a modoki because it had a high MEI.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    That has to be the dumbest comment I have ever heard from a pro met. The irony of him ranting about JB having an agenda....
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This one is not intense and is not close with them.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe specifically for the PNA...
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Factors like the sun matter more in weak and basin wide events.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    The vp works out just fine in my experience and when it doesn't, there are reasons why. Nothing operates in a vacuum.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with you that the forcing doesn't matter....at least in stronger events. But obviously +PNA seasons are more difficult to come by in the heart of a multi decadal cold phase.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why wouldn't you weight tropical forcing in a strong el Nino? Keep in mind forcing is less important in weaker events.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why are you just focusing on the 50's and 60's?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think PV disruption is closer to mid month into the holidays.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    No argument here.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't just mean the numeric value of the index...the pattern itself was very anomalous and augmented by the fact that even the +PNA interval in January was biased so far west that it acted as an extreme RNA. I'm not arguing the point that seasonals have Gross limitations....just that last season was an anomaly that wasn't really predictable on a seasonal level.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure last season is a great example given the magnitude of the PDO....that will never be forecasted on a seasonal level.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    He obviously has an agenda that biases his contemporary work, but the guy had already established himself on the Mount Rushmore of meteorology.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    My LICSW mind sniffs out some jealousy of the career he has built and insecurity about this own professional standing...people act overtly aggressive like that when they feel threatened and inadequate.
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