40/70 Benchmark

This kind of an outcome would make sense to me.

So you don't think the MEI matters much... Okay, fair enough....the only example of what you are suggesting is 1965, which had a peak ONI of 2.0, MEI of 1.6 and RONI of 2.00. I think that is reasonable.

I think its suspect bc +IOD correlates to canonical el nino and +AO/NAO. The increased moisture I can buy.

@snowman19 Do you agree this is a fair assessmenet? I would wager RONI being a bit lower than that and MEI a touch higher.

No doubt we see a jump between now and November, but I don't see it getting above 1.5, at most. I would say like 1.2 to 1.4

I think you have touched upon part of the reason why PDO and PNA are not necessarily always matched on a seasonal level.

Maybe a meme?

You just happened upon one of my sensible weather analogs....entirely independent of this, mind you....I just line up the matching ENSO state years and sort out best temp and precip matches....1977 made the list for both. Keep in mind there are other seasons, so don't get the wrong idea....

Some smoke emanating from a near-by chimney, football and Halloween movies and I'm set-

I love the cool, rainy fall weekends....bring it.

@ORH_wxman& @CoastalWx..any thoughts on this??

All I have been saying is its going to be basin-wide.

It didn't elicit an angry response from me....I was trying to gather more information to understand his perspective. I still fail to see the relevance of the global mean temperature, as its the Pacific that is the focus...as is reflected by the RONI and MEI. He never accounted for that. His point about the global mean seems like an effort at deflection and obfuscation to me...IOW, when someone is unarmed with an adequate response on a cyber stage in front of a virtual gathering of followers, then they will utilize a smoke machine to make an escape.

Region 4 is nearly as warm as its ever been, as well. The coolest area anomaly wise is the central basin and thus far the west PAC has been tilting the forcing in that direction. No way to know definitively whether or not that will remain the case moving forward, but guidance indicates that it will.

Just expounding on this a bit further....if we think back to 1995 and how that season evolved, many in hindsight speculated that the active STJ during that modest cold ENSO event was due to the hemisphere having been dominated by warm ENSO for the previous few years. Well, in this case, we have a robust el nino attempting to assert in the face of one of the more protracted and prevalent cool ENSO events on record, so it stands to reason that there may be some similar lag effects and mixed features here (not using 1995 as an analog). Almost like overrunning when SW flow runs into a cold high...some of that energy is initially spent on producing precipitation until the warm advection eventually overwhelms. My working theory is we may see a N stream branch every bit as prominent as the STJ at times this season.....how exactly that works and who reaps the benefits and is porked TBD.

That is just about the time I was envisioning for a concerted change to a more wintery pattern...even independent of this.

We are going to need to see something unprecedented in order for this el nino to BOTH register as a super event relative to the warmer globe AND couple strongly enough to influence the hemisphere at a level commensurate with an event of that magnitude. Period. Using history as a guide it would appear as the former is more likely than the latter, which makes sense considering the state of the cool ENSO dominated hemisphere over the course of the last several years...some of that energy will be spent forcing change instead of actually dictating the ROSBY wave train, etc....almost akin to virga whereas it doesn't actually precipitate until the moisture triggers a tipping point...AKA saturation. What the preponderance of evidence is conveying is that it will take time to elicit a response from the atmosphere and that matters.

RONI growth from JJA value to peak 1982 1.65 1997 .74 2015 1.11 MEI growth from JA value to peak 1982 .8 1997 .1 2015 .2 Lets assume an aggressive 1982 like growth curve for the balance of the fall into the cold season.... RONI peak of 2.25 MEI peak of 1.2

So the central half of ENSO, where it matters most, is cooler, and the MEI and RONI a mere fraction of 2015 as a reflection of a warmer western Pacific.....but nothing to see here.

I guess there is some alternate universe where that doesn't matter, but in my version of reality it most certainly does.

JJA 2015 1.24 JJA 2023 0.57 2015 0.2 0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.7 1.7 1.9 2023 -1.1 -0.8 -0.7 -0.4 -0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4

We are already running behind 2015 everywhere except 1.2 and 4 (aside from MEI and RONI), so losing more ground would be notable. 16SEP2015 22.8 2.1 27.2 2.3 28.6 2.0 29.6 0.9 20SEP2023 23.5 2.8 27.0 2.1 28.3 1.7 29.9 1.2

I really, really like a tamer version of 2015 as an ENSO analog...which is certainly not necessarily a death knell for eastern snow hounds