40/70 Benchmark

Ideally, a weak high leading to a run-of-the-mill event with a low 980s near BM.

Or even just a system with poor high placement/lack of high so that it was a modest event. Doesn't have to be "zero" snow.

I agree it isn't coupled as of yet....ie the ocean and atmosphere are not communicating. The SST configuration over the tropical Pacific belies what is actually happening in the atmosphere to a degree. That should change later this fall, but its a great illustration of why operating on the premise of a super el nino is so suspect. That doesn't necessarly preclude a mild, relatively snowless witnter as being the final outcome for the east, but it is what it is.

He didn't say a cold CONUS....he said normal to slightly below south.

Any feedback on that text I sent yesterday? I know there must be some weak/shitty high placement, but you have a better memory.

Yea, he is a tool....I'm talking about the severe weather link from Europe. That guy is legit.

That isn't a weenie site.

If we are just considering el nino seasons, than its 1986 and 2009...not close.

For SNE, there are worse things than having the el nino act weak.

I actually really like that site....follow it consistently.

There was actually incredibly strong and persistent high latitude blocking that winter...its just wasn't over Greenland.

Yes, fair post. We will have to see.

Search Twitter for a few hours and you can find a new paper supporting whatever you want.

About what I have.

Just some light showers here. 58.1 off of a low of 47.1

You won't have any issue there.

If it were snow. Obviously I don't care about rain.

Thank God it's not winter. We'd be losing our minds.

Yea, December looks toasty to me.

Well, my apologies if this wasn't directed specifically at me, but that is how I interpreted it. It doesn't matter...moving on.

I wasn't implying that you have a political agenda....I was just making the comparison to politics because GW is also a very heated, polarizing topic.

@bluewaveYou make very worthwhile contributions, no doubt....climate change is synonymous with politics in that it is very polarizing and contentious, so its fine to disagree. But I would suggest actually putting out a formal seasonal product at some point because I suspect that if you do, you will gain some perspective and understand why the snide remark about my bias is really uncalled for within the context of that exchange. Not only is it ALOT OF WORK....and sacrifice by family given the time that goes into it, but its a very illuminating experience to open oneself up to much critique and judgement and not sure you fully appreciate that...especially when I am equally meticulous about reporting results and past verification/bias. But its necessary to develop the insight needed to precipitate change when needed to alleviate said bias to the extent to which it is emotionally driven.

I've added in some commentary about seasonal guidance....looks like aside from NCEP, they all agree on some blocking, but there are two PAC camps. EURO and JMA is more of a +PNA and full-frontal nudity, while the rest are more RNA and subdued because of it.

I think pinning tracks of individual storms on GW is where you are going to lose some people. I'm just going to agree to disagree and leave it at that.