40/70 Benchmark

Well, I think there is a decent shot December is mild, so....not sure why that means that the pattern can't change later on, as is often the case during el nino. Tell me something...you said the WV hit the N Hemisphere last January.....yet March featured very anomalous high latitude blocking, which I correctly predicted in November btw. But if this December has a strong PV, then it must be due to the water vapor??? Why wasn't March as telling for you as this December apparently will be? I mean, the WV had propagated into the NH by that point, right?? Show me a winter month in the early 90s with that type of blocking on the heels of Pinatubo....

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

But how did the Euro's h5 pattern look?

Right.....but as we have been discussing, this el nino is going to have some fundamental differences from that one. This is why many of the seasonals look the way thay they do.

06-07 was a torch....again, descending solar/powerful PV.

It's a good analog, aside from Pinatubo and descending solar, which I think explains the polar domain. I know snowman feels as though this is Pinatuno 2.0, but we disagree on that.

Yea, its a good extra tropical Pacific analog, but not so much in the arctic.

Global warming is really messing with a lot of these traditional relationships, such as having that warm strip connect over to CA during cold phase Pacific and weakening the actual el nino relative to its absolute intensity. Absolute values are not important....its how they compare and interact with the surrounding atmosphere that does.

Exactly. This is why I was saying to @snowman19that the PDO and PNA often part ways and that is often the case during el nino. He weenied me, but I have stats that will illustrate this in my early November presentation. Expect a -PDO/+PNA this season.

August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather

For instance, I am quite certain that the polar domain will not be as hostile as 1972, due in part to the relatively meager MEI/RONI on conjunction with a myriad of other factors, nor will the PDO be positive, as it was in 2015.....largely due IMHO to the residual cold ENSO influence. This ties into being in the overall cold multidecadal phase of the Pacific.

I definitely agree with you and raindance on this....the largest issue I see with people, including myself, is that our stances tend to be too polarized. This causes us to view issues as too "black and white", when the reality is much more nuanced and more of a compromise. I definitely see some summer-season commonality with stronger el nino events, such as 1972, 1982, 2009 and 2015, but I think its also important to consider the -vp pattern and MEI/RONI because those metrics also offer insight into the overall character of the developing el nino event. There are some stark differences between those 4 seasons. Dismissing how the forcing is manifesting itself is every bit as silly and equally detrimental to seasonal forecasting efforts as failing to fully appreciate the existence of an appreciable nino.

That is a cold look with that monster ridge over AK....I wouldn't be suprised to see it verify colder if that worked out.

Bring it.....no relevance, but I will never forget the fall of 1995 playing out like that...constant barrage of nor' easters that began early on.

Juicy, Lucy plenty of dingleberries to go around

All sarcasm aside, if this pattern doesn't relent its going to be an interesting winter season.

Bingo. I think what gets lost in the shuffle is that the weather is the product of gradients resulting from the interaction of competing forces....people are focusing too much on one force when the ambient environment is just as integral a part of the equation. Its not low pressure that creates the storm, but rather the imbalance of pressure...same thing with respect to forcing. It is the result of the SST gradient, not the absolute value within the ENSO region, as this is only part of the equation.

I'm done with my first draft of seasonal composites.....will just check against actual weather over the next 6 weeks or so before publishing. I think some around here get the idea that I am going wall-to-wall snow and cold and that simply is not the case.

I still don't think the ONI ever hits 2.0, but I'm not that concerned about it because I'm convinced that it doesn't really matter.

This is what I am saying. My comment about more N stream involvement this winter has nothing to do with ACE...two discrete comments. All meant was a weaker el nino could maintain more N stream involvement.

Going through some of my methodologies now and there is definitely some value in the 1982-1983 analog, but its clear that el nino will functionally be significantly weaker.

I think what he means is that ACE is irrelevant within the context of a winter forecast for an el nino season.

What this may mean is more periods in which the N stream steals the show.

I am in that sliver in which ENSO doesn't really matter, but I would still take a weak to moderate El nino, all things equal.