40/70 Benchmark

Yep...same week 1993 got going, ironically enough.

I won't be surprised if something pops the last month of the week...I loved that week back in November, before the PAC jet swallowed half of December whole.

Right...not denying AGW, but I stand by the fact you don't need to rival Feb 1934 to snow. 2015 actually beat that month, despite 61 years of AGW.

Of course its an overcompensation, but you need insight in order to overcompensate so its progress.

He's learning.....knows a shit load more than I did at his age....assuming early-mid 20s?

Not a totally unreasonable take and I wouldn't be shocked if we got shutout through December, but be careful with that last week of the month, as the ridging edging north combines with improving climo. You don't need Feb 2015 cold to snow.

AKA R/S line over W. Methuen.

Poor guy could post "the world is round and the sun is bright" and ruthless snowman would still light 'em up.

That winter actually had a ton of northern stream, at least in March.....I had my snowiest March on record after that Feb SSW.

Funny how everytime @MJO812posts, a weenie gets its buns lol...usually @snowman19 doing the honors.

Followed by another mild week or two as the energy flux rises from the trop to the strat....then its pants off for Feb.

582dm N of Miami

Well, John could do volume II..."The Unintelligible Edition"....

Makes a bit more sense, as it has always seemed too low.

Or just etch a bun into the tombstone.

Aren't you perpetually whining how we haven't had a decent warm core system in decades?

Is it me, or have they adjusted these? I feel like SO was 0.3 and ON was 0.6, whereas now they are 0.4 and 0.8, respectively.

Yea, that's fine....semantics, I guess.....if you would rather view it as the prism between the ONI and MEI/RONI being reflective of competing forces, rather than a limited warm ENSO expression....I can see that.

This is totally fair.

My point is that its ill advised to just consider the Maritime implication of having forcing displaced so far west, while ignoring what that means with respect to the Hadley Cell later in the season...especially when unwilling to concede that the west PAC warm pool does in fact limit the hemispheric expression of el Nino relative to the ONI. That is inconsistent...you could get away with it in 1994 and 2006 because we had a different solar situation and hence a drastically different polar evolution. I am confident that absolutely will not work this season when all is said and done.

2006 is another great example of el Nino having a la Nina flavor, but the difference being the polar domain that year....look how far west that forcing was. It is pretty high on my list of analogs, save for the polar domain. Even that season had a nice stretch in February and March.

I also feel like the "weaker" expression will also allow for a less prominent Aleutian low displaced further to the west during those periods of dateline forcing, as opposed to a season like 1998, that has the other worldly low tucked against the coast and overwhelming the colder MJO phases with that transcendent PAC jet. This is the benefit of having the Walker cell displaced to the west....we have seen the negative of it in Maritime forcing and we will see the benefit later this season. Stronger, Canonical el Nino Hadley Cell Configuration The Modoki el Nino, on the other hand, has a diametrically opposed circulation pattern that weakens said subtropical Pacific jet, which in turn diminishes the Atlantic jet and fosters the development of a cyclonic circulation that sustains negative NAO episodes via said wind-evaporation-SST feedback. This often works in conjunction with western ridging due to the position of the Hadley Cell over the central Pacific. Weak el Nino/Modoki Hadley Cell Configuration

Interesting that I see 2014 also in that list of warmest Decembers, so while I certainly don't expect a repeat of that, a warm December is not prohibitive of decent snowfall season. 2006 and 1968 were also on my list....1958 was, too.

I don't think it will be a cold as if it were to displace on our side of the hemisphere, but the blocking should still have an impact. I agree...I think the coldest periods will be in February when we have periods of EPO/PNA ridging.