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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was about to say, with a 15mi wide eye, an EWRC is probably not imminent.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Odds are the mid Atlantic will see greater anomalies.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Aside from ogling the intensity, I still don't see the appeal with this one.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably be 150-155mph.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am kind of feeling a good, 'ole fashioned interior focused el nino with a good deal of huggers.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I bet most guidance cools a bit again next month.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Can we shake hands on the September Euro winter seasonal verifying? I would sign now.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I actually did get that storm correct down to the week back in early November....I was just too cold and snowy overall. I focused to much on the westward lean of SSTs.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Show me a super nino with a west PAC like that. Climate change. You can't just use ONI anymore...I understand why snowman thinks that this is me moving the goalposts to produce a cold outlook, but had I realized this in 2018-2019 and 2019-2020, I would not have been operating on premise of weak el nino. That killed my forecast. Trust me, only thing I love as much as snow are my family and being right. I do not want egg on my face and I am adjusting to past failures, not moving goalposts.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The higher ONI values are why you have the more assertive GOA low.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    JB's use of the term "migrating modoki" is dumb, as this is not a modoki, but it doesn't mean it can't end up acting like one due to the W PAC and he is right about the N PAC on the EURO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is what JB (I know) hit on in his last video when analyzing the Sept Euro. The guy is biased as hell...I get it, but he knows his stuff.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    You saw my posts, too...I mean, look familiar?? Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather Blocking likely August ENSO Update & Potential Extratropical Pacific Analogs for Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather -PDO likely, but the best matches and majority of analog seasons had +PNA in the DM mean.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, if you don't trust them to adequately diagnose major hemispheric drivers, then why are we assuming they have ENSO anomalies correct to within .3 degrees?
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends how you are using them....I wouldn't rip and read them, but they can identify general themes and help the forecaster to focus on prominent seasonal drivers.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe the seasonal consensus is wrong...certainly very possible at this lead. But enough with the pillaging of anyone who espouses their content, especially those who have been touting such an outcome for some time now.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't offered a RONI prediction, but probably...maybe 1.5, tops....like the MEI.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its like me calling you biased for expecting a super el nino when guidance is showing....a super el nino. Doesn't mean I have to agree or think it will be right, but its a a valid, supported conclusion.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    It validates my argument as sound, not that it will necessarily be reality. Is this that difficult to understand?
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    As a result, I am keeping my ONI prediction between 1.5 and 1.9, where it has been all summer.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That has been what has been happening all summer, save for a couple of weeks in August and its shifting back. Regardless, all I am suggesting is that the fact that models are now showing what I have been arguing provides me with a measure of validation since you accused me of being biased and having an agenda.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you remember, snowman gave me shit over it, but I said that I expected the PDO and PNA to part ways.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, its getting pretty hard to ignore, at this point....this is congruent with my research a month ago on the winter 2023-2024 polar domain.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I have been thinking around that.
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