40/70 Benchmark

That began my several year regression pay back following March 2018.

The Atlantic and polar field will cooperate...I am increasingly convinced of that. I like what I see.

I got porked in the March event...I remember I thought I was in great shape for that big northern band and it ended up over you and Will. I had like 8".

I could totally see that.

Simple and to the point relative to NE interests...this 70W recurve won't cut it. I think if it somehow missed the trough, then big trouble for FL.....but otherwise....

If this could some how miss the trough and heads towards FL, then I'd be all in. But unlikely.

No.

Extremely remote chance, but track away.

Excellent post. I have zero interest in this because it looks to run up 70W.

Lots of uncertainty about where exactly it will go, which is expected several days out, but really not much uncertainty about whether or not it makes landfall in the US. Doesn't mean zero impact, but it is what it is.

I really don't see anything overly compelling in terms of US interests. Meteorologically speaking, sure.

Yea, I can imagine anything greater than 1.5 for MEI peak.

Yes, but it never coupled...acted like a la nina.

+1 to +2F sounds reasonable to me.

Yes. Been in line with my thoughts all along.

I don't entirely agree with this. I'm sure the warmer gulf stream has an impact, but a record RNA is going to cause some higher heights over the se...especially since the NAO was near neutral in the mean for the month.

Shocking-

I would have to go back and look at the mid month event specifically, but I agree with this for the most part.

It's always important to keep an open mind. ...Back on 8/12 I posted why I don't feel the polar domain is the slam dunk that some think it is this year.

I wonder how long until this isn't ignored....

Well, I'm not arguing that any given month would have been colder 60-70 years ago...again, I am not disputing global warming. However, that evolution of that big pre xmas event would have been mainly rain for the NE 300 years ago is my point. Last December would have sucked for snowfall, regardless.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

First of all, you don't need to back that up. Global warming is real and I am not debating that. I'm sure it is impacting things, but but bad breaks like we got last December have always been, are and always will be more prevalent in a flawed pattern. We had an extreme -PNA in conjunction with that NAO block...that is why we had the rige over se Canada and the se US. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

The overattributation of global warming is mind numbing.

I don't think a record RNA helping to induce an early phase would have led to a snowy outcome for the northeast in 356BC, either. The PV lobe last December got pinned to the west of the the downstream NAO block and phased with a western SW. That has nothing to do with global warming. In the mean, the month of December had an intense RNA and a near neutral NAO with one waisted block flex. Anyway, IDK..the west PAC looks alot different than 1997 to me. That doesn't mean we can't have a mild winter...just saying.