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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was clear to me doing the seasonal that there would be some decent blocking....I'll always take my chances with that and do well the vast majority of the time.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm talking about at extended leads....anything less than a record -PDO would have been fine last year.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just my opinions....not all fact per se, of course.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like it would be the PDO for sustained cold....but nothing beats a stochastic PNA flex for a nice storm.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same....48.2 @ 620AM.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Holy July lol
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Global warming cancel!!!!! I kid, of course, but that is no more idiotic than attributing every single anomaly to GW. (Not speaking at you...just to you).
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its not exceedingly rare for the PDO and PNA to part ways...I actually think that they will this year.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think SNE should feel good about the prospects of -PDO coupled with some moderate blocking.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    The PDO was negative in 2009-2010. You have to remember that last season featured a record negative PDO in order to guard against PTSD that will bias your outlook. That said, I get that that season has a huge neg NAO, which is unlikely, so safe to say that DC probably isn't getting 60". Doesn't mean it will suck.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    The MEI and RONI are...remember you made the point about how strongly last year's la nina acted, despite the modest ONI? Take a look at the MEI. I'm also not sure the forcing will not be modoki like due to how warm the western Pacific and Nino 4 are.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks torchy.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Very good...one of the best ever...like top 10.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    9.67" of rainfall to wrap up August in Methuen. 8.39" for July and 8.44" for June=26.5" on the summer.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Neither was reality at H5.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would argue the look that actually verified looked decent, as did many, but alas....
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    2009-2010 was an eskimo queef away from being 2002-2003.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    It was accurate at the pole.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    2002-2003 and 1986-1987 were fine....as was 1965-1966.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    That is the only one of your analogs that was any good out this way...1982-1983 was decent, largely due to one event.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see December evolving similarly to last year, TBH....then more PNA as the season evolves.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on all accounts. Shield the little ones from Santa's speedo, then bombs away. I do, however, expect strat shenanigans during the month of December, but it won't pay dividends until after the NY.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Opinions on solar implications, volcanic eruptions and the QBO are like a$$holes...everyone has one. But I am pretty confident in my research and do not expect a strong PV in the DM seasonal mean. Perhaps it won't be as lubed up as the CANSIPS, but such an outcome would not shock me in the least. I get the skepticism for maybe one more month, but if October maintains this signal, than the dissenters need to reevaluate if they are being objective and honest with themselves.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    ....And to all a good night...
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not suprised whatsoever.
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