40/70 Benchmark

Credit ninja lol

@Allsnow@SnoSki14@bluewave@snowman19Nice job on December....gotta give credit for not buying the holiday flip headfake. Nice job.

This is the same, exact list that I used in deciding on my 12/25 to 1/8 date range for the SSW.

Yes, kudos to @bluewavefor being specifically all over the jet extension and the modeled propagation of the MJO being biased fast. I expected a mild December, but didn't specifically highlight the jet extension and took the bait on the flip around the holidays. I don't think it changes much in the grand scheme of things, but it may cause December to finish a bit warmer than my predicted +1 to +3F range for the mid atl and NE. We shall see. Its not too surprising in hindsight considering that essentially a colder version of 2015-2016 has always been the expectation.

If you are referring to the seasonal mean, then I still doubt you.

You've been on a roll today

Agreed.

Depends which "no changes" cohort you mean...I remain quite confident I am on the right track.

Yep. Great post....nothing has changed...I was a bit spooked at the start of the month that I may have been a touch too mild, but it may be the other way....change maybe a bit late, but nothing is canceled.

Nothing to melt

The NAO/AO are not totally irrelevant, though...you can see in the December temp anomaly chart that it kept the NE from torching even more...while that doesn't matter in December, I think it would in a month to six weeks from now. But we all agreed this would not be a very cold year and I agree that Pacific is more important.

2.28" total RF

Too be fair, I think #2 goes both ways.....def more posters biased toward cold, though.

Down to 45 from 60.

.75" as of midnight.

I don't know of anyone denying climate change.

I think the MJO is contributing to the more +NAO/AO late month, but I agree the PAC jet is the main cause of the warmth.

We'll see.

Too bad we may lose the holiday period, but climo is an uphill battle for the atlantic CP at that point, anyway.

I had +1 to +3 this month, so 1.9 would work.

I think the NAO also prevented a full on torch in the NE, too...not that it mattered, aside from ski areas.

Nope. Don't need the MJO, aside from maybe helping to trigger the initial change...I am content to handing the reigns over to the basin wide el Nino for later in Januart through February.

We are going to see volatility among medium and long range guidance during the transition time, so I advise everyone to be mindful of premature spiking of the football, regardless of expectation.

I mean, even 2003 started that way....its not a big deal.....1987, too.