40/70 Benchmark

This is what is explicitly reflected by the RONI and even the MEI in a more indirect sense.

Yep.

Your ceiling is greater than climo this year.....most of it will probably come in one big dump.

I wasn't insinuating anything....I was actually surprised by how similarly they look.

I also thought that you would do okay last season, but the ceiling is much higher for you this year than it has been in several years.

I think Maryland has a great shot at climo.

Looks more likely than it did a month or two ago, but not yet resigned to it....nor should anyone to anomalies of that magnitude at extended lead times. Folks get bunned for that quite often between the months of December and March.

Yea, I don't get the intrigue...aside from perhaps being a meteorological novelty were it to make it here, which it won't. Its like bragging that you are finally dating the prom queen.....70 years later-

Its like a frigid day in March...doesn't have the same sting and won't last-

Irrelevant within the context of my point, which is entirely independent of any ultimate peak. It can go on to peak with an ONI of 3.3 and that wouldn't change the fact that we are not currently in a strong el nino.

Great pattern for it to begin September...cold locked by the pole while we roast.

You would be shocked how many knowledgeable people in weather circles just can't grasp that...it drives me nuts...especially on social media. They just stare at the daily departures and get all worked up.

What is meant is it's not acting like other events that ultimately peaked as super events...not that it is already that intense.

I think like 957mb

Hopefully by December.

Sox are about what I thought they were.

Forecast landfall location of Steinhatchee, FL was perfect for Idalia, however, the forecast timing was too late by 90 minutes and the intensity was 10MPH too intense (125MPH vs 135MPH). My thoughts as to why to inform better future forecasts are included. FINAL GRADE: A https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/dangerous-hurricane-idalia-well-forecast.html?m=1

Anecdotally speaking, I am glad September looks warm.

Gonna go right over the my old stomping grounds of Paris Island.

Yes, I noticed and wasn't sure what to make of it.

Snowman, all joking aside, I bet anything that if you start presenting some data in support of perspectives that differ from that of your own, then people will give you a lot less shit. You gain credibility and are viewed as objective, unbiased and less inflammatory. It goes both ways...we have posters that only post info in support of snow and cold and they get buns tossed at them. There is plenty of data in support of a mild winter, but its important to look for "what could go wrong" to keep yourself honest/objective and your work exhaustive. But you def. know your stuff.

Yea, and that is probably what happens over the winter....we will get at least one solid month of snowman19 forcing....but the hope is that its not the vast majority of the winter.

Well, if you had also been posting it over the course of the summer, then no one would. ; )