Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Depends which research you read.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty clear pattern among every analog set...including Raindance's....the ones with blocking were good out this way.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I haven't made any predictions yet, but there is certainly some evidence for at least a modestly disturbed polar domain.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I am willing to bet that you can find one or two duds in EVERY ENSO state. Often? Jan 2016 is the only super el nino HECS I know of that missed south...and it was a brush, not a whiff.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    NVM the fact that the initial impacts in the SH were the powerful PV a year ago...plenty to time for SH to feel the impact another 6 months later, last winter.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice try....a year is long enough regardless of where it takes place.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Me neither. Preliminary Analysis of the Polar Landscape for Boreal Winter 2023-2024 | Eastern Mass Weather
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    According to research, the max impact is during the first DJF period following the eruption....and it takes about 3-6 months to work into the atmosphere. Any compelling reason why it will have a greater impact 24 months removed from the January 2022 eruption than it did 12 months removed? S02 was never much of a factor in this eruption, but it has also peaked.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    If you want to make it even simpler, guess which is the only one of those seasons with a disturbed polar region? There are reasons why the others all featured a strong PV.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not a big deal IMO...the event had to move westward if el nino were to flourish, as 3.4 is the main indicator.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I didn't know any better as a 15yo in 1996. You would think the pros would have-
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Really? At our latitude? Care to name the el nino seasons with 3 or fewer advisory events at Boston?? And again...keep in mind that the bulk of that +4 to +5, if accurate, will be achieved at night.....the fact that we radiate to 25 instead of 19 will not necessarily inhibit seasonal snowfall.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some, sure.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, 2015-2016 had us merely brushed by one of the largest east coast snow events in history and some SNE areas still finished near normal snowfall. 2018-2019 was a meager el nino that never coupled and left us in residual la nina hang-over. If this el nino is nearly as potent as you believe, then that won't happen.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its going to depend on the polar fields.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't imply that this fatailstic thought process was "wrong", but rather dysfunctional. The fact is that healthy el nino events leave us prone to high-magnitude snow events.....if you average 40" per year and you get half of that in one event, then you are several advisory events away from climo-
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I was young and naive enough to take it hook-line-and-weenie back then. I scoff at similar present day set ups. Unless you have the huge ULL over the lakes to hoover these things in, adjust east of guidance once above about 38* in latitude.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't have any issue with essentially punting the first half of winter.....I am not trying to claim a record winter is en route....but rather I find it hard to believe that we won't have some favorable stretches this season.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    The RONI, as well..... .33 cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Same place Brett came in back in 1999....another one in 2017, too.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    But it was east-based!!!!!! How could that be? I'll bet @snowman19's great grandfather kicked his horse and buggy and smashed all of the lanterns in the cabin.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    The rebuild at H5 continues. If you care to donate to the fictional Red Cross, send your account and routing number to [email protected].
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    1982-1983 was average. He is in this overcompensation pattern for his first couple of years on the forum, when he acted like a manic JB. Once he realized that we don't average 100" of snow in coastal SNE, he has never been the same.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree. I think the snowfall looks reasonable.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    More importantly, the forcing remains west....my guess is they meet somewhere in the middle (150-160Wish?), as max anomalies slide westward and forcing eastward.
×
×
  • Create New...