40/70 Benchmark

Odds are we will see a flatter Aleutian ridge, which isn't so great. The key in a Modoki La Nina is to keep it weak, which looks unlikely.

Thing is if Canada is cold, which is more likely in a La Nina, then you can get lucky due to the shape/orientation of the PV...a year like 2007-2008 should have sucked on paper. But tough to predict something like that....

Yea, even the few times there is some cold around, it just never links up.

That said, I would be suprised if next season is good...I could see somehow avoiding a ratter with a bit of luck, which we are "due" for.

You laugh, but honestly...past couple I felt would be somewhat mild with climo like snowfall and they have been brutal.

Well, early sentiment is for a healthy Modoki La Nina working in conjunction with a +QBO/descending solar...doesn't take a CC zealot to know to temper expectations. We probably have about 3-4 more bleh-ish seasons before we catch a break in the latter half of the 2020s is my guess.....probably at least one big season as the Pacific changes and we near solar min. Yes, I understand what a shot in the dark that speculation is....again, "just my (educated) 'guess' ". We really need a decent season fast because its become increasingly exhasting around this place....you need so many qualifiers so someone doesn't bite your head off.

I think there are pretty low expectations for next season.

Glad I checked out mid Feb. Happy "tracking"...

Today was nasty...only topped out at 42

My last one was a Davis...tried Ambient this go around and its worth it because its much, much cheaper, more user friendly and not a huge downgrade in terms of accuracy.

You have an Ambient, too!

I'll start taking a mild interest after the weekend if it looks for real...otherwise, I have been checked out for about a month.

Strong Modoki La Nina

They can kiss my ass. I learned from that experience, though...now in huge events, I always report snowfall and snowdepth.

Hey, I hit 30"...on the SEASON.

Luke doesn't deny CC....he just doesn't think its going to be 70.

Neither of you are favored for anything except spring.

Better shot of a 2010-2011 redux-

I'm not optimistic, but it will probably not be any worse than this past year.

Here are the Modoki La Nina seasons that were preceded by active ACE years. Maybe we will manage a bit more snowfall next year, assuming a high ACE (can it be less?), but should still be mild. Possibly a bit cooler with the warmth centered to the south, as opposed to north...like this past year. But the winter will probably be better out west again.

1973 and 1983 quiet ACE years and Modoki La Nina...2010 active ACE and basion-wide eastward lean La Nina.

Yea, I had an inch in that. lol That really is incredible.....here on the NH border I mustered one warning and one advisory event all season.