I don't think this will be a March 2012 repeat for the record...I said +2 to +4, so yea, that implies a cool down in the second half given we are like +10 now.
Think about this....I have 30" on the season and 19" of it fell on January 7. The rest of the winter I have 11".....which would be far and away my futility record.
My next largest event is 3.5" on January 17th.
Think of it in terms of winter....the warm waters are analagous to well placed surface high pressure....doesn't matter if the upper levels are hostile.