40/70 Benchmark

Yes.

Onlyfans?

August is probably our most humid month...it lags a bit, where as peak heat is July...like winter in that peak cold climo is January, but snowfall is February. I am sure there is plenty of more runs on toilet paper to be had...but take any respite you can get this time of year.

Just like winter, its all about the mid levels...surface thermals just get the conversation started.

Yes, I know.

1972, as well....however, 1972 and 1991 lose points when considering the RONI AND MEI: 1972 AMJ RONI .80, MJ MEI 1.4 1982 AMJ RONI .68, MJ MEI 1.4 1991 AMJ RONI .44, MJ MEI 1.1 2023 AMJ RONI .07, MJ MEI 0.2 These numbers are much more in line with 1986 and 2009. My issue with 1986 is the PDO and lower solar.

Do you have a site or anything that I could give a shout out in reference? Not that I have a huge following, but every bit helps...it what be nice to get that info out the with the wealth of info that you bring to the table.

I expect the RONI and MEI to peak at around 1.5...so yes, a pretty strong driver....just not of the historic caliber that the ONI may suggest.

That isn't what I said and I am still not sure the ONI peaks over 2.0.

Older is more experienced.

Yea, incapable of engaging in constructive dialogue because he seems to use weather mastery as a means of eliciting a sense of competency that he hasn't achieved in his personal life, presumably at least partially due to addiction. I have been there....feel for him, but at the same time....wow. I try to never comment on his musings for that reason. He just cannot tolerate alternative points of view.

You have no idea how nauseating he can be....he DMs me...nice kid, but his viewpoint is so consumed by a myriad of compensatory defense mechanisms for which he has so little insight as a byproduct of his age. The end result is that I am condemned to pay for his slew of perceived inadequacies in life....f8%$. This as a product of the internet....this deranged co-dependency of sort with a surplus of information for which certain individuals just aren't equipped to cope with. What we end up with is an invaluable outlet for folks with MH and dependency issues, like the weather, actually ends up being intorwoven into and thus symptomatic or the dysfunction. And we all pay for it-

Initials RV

There is this younger, "know it all" type on Facebook that just can't wrap his mind around ONI and why the lagged nature of it is important. Just convinced el nino has been so much stronger than it has been because he obsesses over the daily SST numbers. One day while he was mocking me, he pointed out how "lagged" the ONI is, as if it invalidates it.....I was just shaking my head...like, finally you get it (sarcasm). He's is one of those kids that just scoffs at CPC and feels his own criteria should be used to define ENSO. Classic dearth of perspective that too often an inherent element of youth.

One thing I am very confident of is that this el nino will not be as a prominent a driver in the atmosphere as the robust ONI implies...this is why I have included moderate seasons in my preliminary composites. The ONI doesn't always necessarily tell the whole story, as we saw last year during the la nina.

It was the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Would make sense given the self-destructive nature of ENSO...definite "chicken or egg" deal...

This is exactly why I am befuddled by the "classic east-based el nino" comments. Doesn't mean it will end up favorable for eastern US winter enthusiasts, but it is what it is....aside from the SST configuration, that statement is factually incorrect.

No complaints.

I wouldn't notice since I check out for the summer.

This is what I am unsure of....last year it didn't cause a very strong PV, but you wonder if it took some time to fully infiltrate the atmosphere.

Yes. Totally agree.

How so?

Opposite this year haha.