40/70 Benchmark

I'm a tropical weenie myself, but why set yourself up for disappointment... When there is a bonafide threat, I'll frequent this thread as much as anyone...save for maybe Scott....who is probably here more often than google.

Saw this posted before, he is incorrect in that 1957 was not east based.

Pretty cool article explaining how the delayed coupling of el nino is causing the S hemisphere winter to deviate from expectations....also calls into question just how strong it will ultimately grow. The Wet and Cold Australian Winter Seems to be Defying the Recent El Nino Alert and is in Stark Contrast to the Official Winter Weather Outlook (severe-weather.eu) If El Niño is not yet coupled, it suggests that the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific have not fully synchronized to create a well-defined El Niño event. The absence of coupling means that the typical atmospheric response and associated impacts on weather patterns may not be fully realised. It indicates that the development and strength of El Niño are still uncertain or not yet pronounced. Essentially, it is too early to know how significant this El Niño will be and certainly too early to be experiencing any direct impacts on our Australian winter weather.

I knew that would elicit a response from you.

Surprising to me, but it make sense because stronger forcing out near the dateline will have that impact. Confirms the theory that location of forcing is more important than intensity.

This shit ends next weekend, thankfully....pattern change.

There is both a narrow corridor for it to track and a narrow set of circumstances in general for a major impact from a tropical cyclone in this area....just one of them is missed, and its a forgettable day of breezy showers. In this day of social media, I get so tired of people whacking it to charts that belie what is a pretty high return rate event climatologically speaking.

Whoop-de-doo

I knew that was coming. IDK how anyone could have expected anything else after seeing that final game.

Stay safe, Paul.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Even if that verified, I would sleep right through it. It would be a ton of hype for what would end up relatively mundane sensible weather appeal. The main impact would be flood watches due to antecedent rainfall, but at the end of the day, it would just be more of what we have already experienced this summer for the vast majority.

See, 2014-2015 was the snowiest winter on record for much of my area, and the second snowiest for me personally...ditto with respect to 2004-2005 (third snowiest for me personally). That is all anyone really cares about TBH....its all about snowfall on this board.

Agree.

How did your NAO formula do last year?

Totally agree....2002-2003 isn't that far off in terms of modoki from what the Jamstec predicts, but I certainly don't expect that type of PDO. I like 1994-1995 best from that group, but solar and QBO are off with that year. 2009-2010 is def. modoki and not a good analog, but I consider 1957 and 1965 more basin wide......1965 is pretty good in terms of solar, PDO and QBO, but probably not as good as 1991, which seems best all around. 1957 is off with the QBO and has the same PDO issue, but is decent for solar.

Everyone is convinced of an el Nino, but the same people that wanted it last year would just assume not have it mature by mid summer.

Well, I'm not sure which meteorologists still use it as such and why, since we now know 3.4 is most crucial for coupling.

I have never heard of this.

7.33" on the month.

1.44" today

I don't think el nino is telling us very much this season. Winter 2023-2024 Unlikely to be Decided by ENSO | Eastern Mass Weather

Interesting how far west the forcing was in 1995, and it still managed to be a brutal winter with very little blocking....I have a theory why and may be relevant this year.