Jump to content

40/70 Benchmark

Members
 View Profile  See their activity

  • Posts

    73,224

  • Joined

  • Last visited

 Content Type 

Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree, but I am pretty confident that this goes basin-wide....which really just means that the pattern would be a little less prohibitive to blocking than it would be with an east based event. However, there are certainly basin-wide events that have gone in that direction (very little blocking).
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Pretty trivial adjustments, as with respect to the EMI....from 1.67 in May, to 1.76 in June and now 1.81 in July. We have gone from 1.7 to 1.8 from May to July....I know that wouldn't alter my seasonal forecast- Still think 2.0 ONI is the ceiling.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks like JAMSTEC has it shifting westward a hair more aggressively, but mostly noise....main takeaway is the east trend stopped. June May
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    During the stronger, canonical events, the Aleutian low is very prominent and tucked in tight to the coast of the PNW, so that there is a stronger PAC jet....during the weaker events that are focused more to the west, that low is more meager and further off of the coast.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    I use the MEI....factors in to my intensity classification.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Was their a volcanic eruption in the early 70s?
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    That season is a pretty good match in terms of where guidance place the forcing, too....maybe just a hair east that season.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    In terms of factoring in the eruption, 92-93 is probably of more relevance given how long ago it occured....that season was even more +AO. New England lucked out that year because the PV was so elongated, kind of like 2007-2008.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Perfectly feasible outcome given where seasonals are placing the forcing, which makes sense assuming the W PAC stay so anomalously warm.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, this is a totally fair point. Agreed.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    These look modoki?
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    First of all, we can agree to disagree on that, as I view it as more central based/basin-wide....I view modoki as heavily biased west of 150*W. Secondly, as I have said, you are too preoccupied with SSTs and not focusing enough on the convection, which is why the "east-based" analog of 1925-1926 ended up in the manner that it did.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I disagree regarding the bolded seasons...care to explain why? I agree that the other three are poor fits, as 1976 was very meager and 2002 and 2009 were modoki seasons. Forcing looks to set up very similarly to the way it did in those other two basin-wide seasons, though.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    I asked him that the other day on twitter...if I remember correctly, he likes the absolute sst match within the ENSO region, despite 1993-1994 falling short of official el nino criteria. It is subtracted to "fix" the PDO, as it was positive that season and is negative this year.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Tough to say...perhaps the furnace that is the atlantic these days promotes even more explosive cyclogenesis, which lowers heights more to compensate. I think the issue that continues to plague our general understanding of global warming and its impact as a society is that we continue to employ too linear of a thought process.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I agree....been trying to explain that to snowman, who apparently doesn't think that the location of the tropical convection is important due to a warmer climate. One of my largest mistakes in the past was focusing only on the ENSO region, but I now realize that the entire equatorial Pacific is crucial unless the significant anomalies are relegated to just the ENSO region.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, best was west of me.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I had that....would have to look at my records, but I think I had like a 1/2".
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think two things doomed last winter. 1) La nina evolved into a modoki event precisely as winter began, which set the wheels of mid winter's demise into motion on the heels of the record RNA screwing December over. 2) Record RNA negating any favorable stretches....this bookended the mid-winter-modoki la nina inferno with December and March porkings. The book-end cosmic dildoes.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree, but I am also confident that this isn't going to be a 2009 or 2002 modoki, either...there is a ceiling for this season in terms of snowfall, but I don't see it being an all-out disaster. Of course, those were my famous last words last fall, too, so I could be wrong....but only if the forcing ends up east of progged.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Strong consensus and it make sense to me, regardless of whether the SST max ends up at 120 or 140W.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, which is why you have to consider the west PAC furnace pulling the forcing further west....and again, a warmer climate means a milder outcome, not a completely different H5 evolution given a similar or further west forcing setup. A replica season would wind up a couple of degrees warmer, sure...which could also mean more moisture for snowfall. Don't forget that the vast majority of global warming manifests during radiational cooling nights, which are dry periods.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    In all seriousness, that season seems redolent of some of the other stonger basin-wide events that were on the western edge of the forcing envelop...like 1957, 1965 and 1986.
×
×
  • Create New...