40/70 Benchmark

Not with respect to the forcing, which is all that matters. Perhaps that changes as it couples more, but not as of yet. Most guidance doesn't forecast the forcing to change. We'll see.

Hyperbole, but you know what I mean.

I am pretty confident that the tropics aren't going to torpedo this winter. If we get porked again, then extra tropical influences will be the culprit.

Since gradients exists with every atmospheric phenomenon, including air pressure and SSTs, you can think of the ENSO ONI like the low pressure off of the east coast and the SSTS over the west PAC like the high pressure over the mid west...same type of system. Well, given that this is an el nino, the high ONI is analogous to a deep area of low pressure off of the east coast. But we would want to see lower SSTS over the west PAC to have a really strong SYSTEM, just like we would a strong high pressure over the mid west. But this year, we have a weak high (warm W PAC SSTS), so the gradient isn't there. Its like having the impressive 961mb low (ONI) with a paltry 1000mb high.

Think about it...what happens when you get a 498mb closed ULL pass under LI in the absence of any thermal gradient or baroclinicity? Well, once everyone finishes toweling themselves off, they realize that the forecast is for snow showers, which disappoints everyone, but Steve and Kevin. Right now, this el nino looks like a huge closed low without much baroclinicity to me...snowman23 is the one that will need to come to grip with reality once he towels himself off-

Weather is the product of gradients, not static measurements...remember that. We only care about the anomalous numbers due to their correlation with the stronger gradients and the fact that they look pretty in our dorky record books, but in and of themselves, they are pretty useless.....powerful shortwaves with no baroclinicity, so to speak.

Its true that its all about the forcing, but 2015 showed us that you still don't want it too strong...saving grace is that I don't think that this event will be as a prominent a driver as that event was given the ambient hemispheric environment, regardless of the ONI, which is what the MEI and RONI illustrate. An apt analogy is to think of the ONI in terms of barometric pressure.....people focus too much on the minimum central pressure with respect to both the tropics and mid latitude cyclones, but what really matters is the pressure gradient...ie the interaction with the ambient environment, which is what truly dictates the weather. ONI is analogous to minimum central pressure within this context....but we need to look around the globe and well beyond the tropics in order to truly ascertain how the weather will play out because that hemispheric gradient is what dictates everything. Period.

Yea...ideally, we would want a bit less blocking, but I would still take my chances with that level of blocking again....it always comes down to luck in the end, regardless of the pattern...just that the deck is more stacked in your favor in certain set ups.

Extreme violence.

The main concerns if you are looking for a good winter in the NE are 1994, 1972 and 1991. I feel like 1972 was just some bad luck, as the pattern wasn't as horrific as the result....but nonetheless, the PV did us in on both occasions. I have been saying it all spring and summer....the polar domain will decide this winter. I don't feel the Pacific will present a strong enough signal one way or another. If we can avoid a death star of a PV, then we should be okay. My primary concern is the volcano, as i feel strongly that is did us in with respect to both 1991 and 1994....New England did well in between because the shape, size and orientation of the PV, not unlike 2007-2008 (I realize it was la nina, just referencing it due to the PV). But that is a precarious path to take in a bonafide el nino...those (92-93 and 93-94) were warm neutral years. We will need to avoid a strong PV in this el nino.

Thanks for this....JMA doesn't go back as far as this data. Will definitely be borrowing this data and referencing you, of course. 1926-27, 1919-20, 1940-1941, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966...all great winters.

Agree RE 91-92..match in every aspect...I feel like Pinatubo is was doomed that winter with a very intense PV....while I doubt as dramatic an impact this season, it is on the table.

Great post...will def. keep this in mind come fall.

I hit 48.7.

We have about a May 10 sun today.

Yes...around about the 10th...just like Feb.

This has nothing to do with the fact that the lower sun angle becomes palpable for the first time.

We always start hearing the crap about the sun getting higher, blah, blah....no denying tushys don't broil in the car as much in August.

8.39" IMBY during July.

.98".

Funny, I have been saying all summer on an anecdotal level how much this summer reminds me of 2009 out here. I really like the 1991 analog.

Not true for me....while it sucked (40.5" when average is about 62"), there are plenty of seasons that have featured less snowfall where I am....just south of me was historically bad. But for me it just a run of the mill clunker.

I'm just going to hit on the MEI and RONI.....I factor them into my intensity classifications, instead of going strictly on ONI.

From about my area near the NH border and up in latitude, the variance falls off....so the crap years, like last year, aren't as bad as the mid atl and most of SNE, but the great years usually not quite as good. This also means I can get kind of "stuck in the middle" for periods, which is why I haven't had an above average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

Yea, something tells me he wouldn't be all that miserable in a snow-barren land.