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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. I am thinking a cooler version of 2015, given that el nino will be appreciably weaker...forcing should be in a similar locale.
  2. There is a wide range of possible outcomes with basin-wide, moderate to strong events.
  3. Not at all....easy to do depending on where you picked up the exchange. NBD.
  4. While I do agree that the SST anomaly configuration is least likely to assume a modoki like configuration, that is not necessarily the case with respect to the velocity potential, which is what is paramount relative to the predominate cold season forcing and resultant weather pattern.
  5. They should make Introduction to sarcasm a prerequisite to posting.
  6. Even the ones that sucked usually produced at least one or two large ones....the only season that didn't was 1972-1973.
  7. I think the pattern this winter could be pretty insane for New England during periods of -NAO/AO.
  8. Gonna be some nuclear shit going down if we get a system under an anticyclone this year.
  9. I feel as though there is room for both. There is plenty of substantive met dialogue in these threads, but I don't see the harm in breaking someone's marbles when the opportunity presents itself....life is more tolerable when you can allow for some levity. I don't see anything personal or particularly venomous.
  10. When have I ever supported him? I have always agreed with you that his primary focus at this stage of his career is click bait. That being said, I'm not sure why anyone would ignore the strong consensus for dateline forcing next winter. Yes, the el nino continues to be heavily east-based at this time, which accentuates the point that the coming winter will be no slam-dunk of a forecast.
  11. TBH, I would prefer a moderate-strong event in terms of ONI...all set with another 2018-2019.
  12. I feel like weakening still has an impact on March.
  13. The forcing is very relevent to ENSO, as its dictated by ENSO. It's like calling posts about storm surge OT in a hurricane thread.
  14. People need to remember that huge storms are relatively rare for a reason. It's not just about getting teleconnection bingo, but you also need to hit on the right wave spacing and relative intensity and orientation of each said index. The latter is often more difficult to achieve than the teleconnections bingo...that is one thing I have learned the past few years during this seemingly interminable cool ENSO stretch.
  15. PDO makes me suspect 3 things about this winter: 1) Polar Domain will make or break this season 2) Inceased risk of deconstructive interference with amplifying waves during neg NAO periods..this ties into 3. 3) Idea of a mid Atlantic focus for snowfall with appreciably strong el nino events is less likely this year....at least in terms of historic deals. We may see some sheared out, attenuating waves dump moderate snows down there either fail to turn the corner and/or dizzle out with latitude.
  16. It probably will be strong, but big diff between 1.7 and 2.3.
  17. Yea, this ssta distribution would be worrisome if it were December. Do me a favor, look at a ssta anomaly chart from November of last year, and then look at one from January as you recall the overall tenor of last season.
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