40/70 Benchmark

That sounds cool...

Basin wide.

I guess my point is that basin wide/modoki is preferred over east based.

I would not want to take my chances with a healthy east-based el nino.

Not necessarily...especially in the mid Atlantic, where one storm can make a season. All of that warmth must raise the stakes in terms of storm potential....especially if we get any type of baroclinicity at all.

Nah.....lol Defining El Niño indices in a warming climate - IOPscience

Yea, I think the RONI attempts to address this.

Not necessarily if that gap between RONI and ONI remains large. If you read my blog, you will see that the super nino years had RONI numbers between like .4 and .6 already...we are still in negative territory...similar to 1986 and 2009. Warmer than average probably, sure.

Definitely not outlandish. We will see....and I agree, while it could end up biased slightly west as a basin wide deal, a traditional modoki is very unlikely. But a westward leaning basin-wide deal like 1957-1958, 1986-1987 or 1965-1966 is very possible. I think that the polar domain will make or break or break this season. If you look at your favorite winter seasons from that composite, 1991-1992, 1994-1995 and 2006-2007 all had a very strong PV, even though the latter two weakened late. I don't think we will see a repeat of last season with the fruitless NAO. A reoccurrence of that caliber of blocking next season would yield much different results.

2004-2005 and 2009-2010 were actually barely negative...never would have guessed that.

I wonder how many good el nino seasons we have had with a -PDO? Off the top of my head, 1968-1969 and maybe 1963-1964? I don't think 1965-1966 was....or 1957-1958. EDIT: 1965-1966 was actually slightly negative...1963-1964 and 1957-1958 were positive.

Keep in mind that I don't necessarily mean that we are due for a 100" season....but rather a reprieve from the significant snowfall deficits that have plagued my area (I know other areas have had better fortune) for 5 consecutive seasons...even if it's just one normal year and then back into the toilet.

Yes, if it's right. June Jamestec guidance trended east a bit. Last year, guidance was forecasting la nina to remain east based as late as November and of course it rapidly went modoki for winter.

Well, I didn't rule anything out...stronger basin-wide events have a wide range of outcomes.

Yea, but we still got the occasional 81-82 and 86-87 mixed in.

This is what I mean...I don't view it as merely a roll of the dice in Vegas.

What Growing Consensus for Strong El Nino May Mean for Winter | Eastern Mass Weather

What Growing Consensus for Strong El Nino May Mean for Winter | Eastern Mass Weather

I would be surprised if you and I end up with another well below normal snowfall season.....just because of how rare it is roll snake eyes six consecutive times. I know the guys like Will, who are banned from casinos will tell me that is flawed logic, but you all know what I mean.

I do agree that by the second half of the season, any enthusiasm about a given pattern should have been more measured given the seasonal trend that became evident.....but you (collective) also need to remain mindful of potentially falling into the persistence forecasting trap.

Well, ordinarily NAO blocks like that do produce....its the equivalent of you posting all of these tweets reporting about a -30 SOI reading that just never translates to an intensifying el nino. Doesn't mean you were wrong, it was just an anomalous pattern with an unlikely outcome.

I agree RE some bad luck....gotta be some positive regression soon.

Even from an MEI standpoint....2015 was already 1.2, 1997 1.1, 1982 .7 and 1972 .8. We are presently at -0.1.

Looks like overall trends from May to June were just a hair stronger (IRI) and more east-based (Jamstec).Jamestec has slowed the progression westward.

The MAM RONI was .54 in 2015 (MAM 1997 .46, MAM 1982 .58, MAM 1972 .66) and it currently sits at -.21 for MAM 2023.