40/70 Benchmark

Feel free to bump this is in 5 months, but I feel its every bit as silly to imply that some of the strongest ENSO events ever observed are viable analogs at this early juncture. In fact, I think that is worse than being open minded about the ultimate DM orientation in early June. And I get what Paul Roundy's stance is ....you've made that abundantly clear; understood. But last I checked, Paul has bowled movements and bad days like the rest of us, so I would suggest endeavoring to engage in independent thought at some point.

This strikes me as potentially a season like 1992...in that it may not be remembered for the volume of intense storms, but rather that one intense storm that manages to avail of the warm SSTs by avoiding the shear and striking a major population center.

I get why the obsession with winter can get obnoxious..we all have our things. The constant barrage of copy/paste jobs from twitter are also like nails on a chalkboard.....strikes me as a very lazy, haphazard means of promulgating an agenda.

2002 maybe a bit too far west in comparison, but I have been saying all spring that the steadfast Canadian seasonal reminds me of the 1986-1987 el nino event with respect to placement and strength. Funny you mention 2004, as I was thinking of that year when I read Raindance's comment about a stormy but not particularly cold winter in the NE...just as an anecdotal aside, not claiming its necessarily a viable analog.

Its a classic basin-wide el nino....been pretty consistent.

I'll take the under on that.

I have never really felt like a super el nino was particularly likely. That doesn't mean that there aren't a million other ways to pull off another crappy NE winter, but I just don't see the super el nino idea panning out.

I would take my chances with a weaker version of 2015-2016...that was basin wide. Most healthy el nino events move from west to east...I don't think particular evolution in and of itself is very unusual.

If we THEORETICALLY (not a prediction) end up a with a low-end moderate ONI/weak RONI season, then the orientation isn't nearly as important because extra tropical drivers will play a larger role in dictating the pattern around the hemisphere next winter. For instance, 1976-1977 was very east based, but it was very weak. Before the climate change gestapo pillars me, my only point is that it was cold despite being an east based el nino...not that anything remotely resembling that level of cold is possible today.

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

This a great example of why this forum is such a great tool....the sharing of information is such a catalyst for growth. We all bring different methods and insight to the table.

I would purchase that. Your methodology is very interesting, and I have learned a lot from it. Its helped me to become less over reliant on ENSO as I have tried incorporating some of the temp and precip matches. That undoubtedly saved me from a much worse forecast had I just stuck with my original way, given that I incorrectly expected an eastern tilted la nina. The precip and temp maps prompted me to use some analog seasons that were pretty unsavory for eastern US winter enthusiasts, such as 2001 and 2011....which was a red flag against going for a big winter. I never, ever would have included those had I not began doing those temp/precip matches. This is the main reason why I went with less snow (around normal) relative to what one would expect given the type of blocky pattern that I had anticipated. I remember getting questions about why I wasn't going for more snow based on the pattern I had depicted. Turns out that was on the right track, but just not accentuated enough.

.36" total here today.

40.3.

1.58" total here.

5 hours here....1:10 to 6:10am.

Yea, I got down to 27.3, but didn't see so much as a trace of frost.

I think basin-wide is the most likely outcome for winter.

The 2018-2019 to 2019-2020 warm ENSO handed me my as$....those were my worst seasonals....especially the latter.

27.3

I would say "D" for my area and maybe C- up near MHT.

Yes, they were basin-wide with an eastward lean....kind of like what is modeled for this season's el nino.

Well, some of that is due to orientation, too.....which is often more important than strength. Years like 2010-2011 and 2020-2021 had an east tilt.

Yea, I mentioned that a couple of pages back...I would take my chances with a Jamstec type of outcome.

You know, I am honestly toying with the notion of using that relative ONI that Larry referenced last week....essentially ONI -.4....ie 1.5 ONI will equate to a 1.1 adjusted ONI and hence that level of forcing on the atmosphere. On the flip end of the spectrum...this past season illustrated how utterly useless the ONI can be with respect to diagnosing winter, as the RONI had to have been much lower than 1.0.