40/70 Benchmark

Agree.

Yea, subtle warmth and big precip is 2004-2005...but last season had prohibitive warmth mid winter.

I would bet on above normal in that case, but an earlier peak may be a bit better.

DM SST composite charts for modoki, basin-wide, east based, weak, moderate, strong and intense. I did DM temps 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM Precip 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 DM H5 1951-2010 and 1991-2020 I also did VP vs 1991-2020 for each composite group.

Yea, I think a peak ONI between 1.4 and 1.8 is reasonable attm.

Not in the MID atl, anyway because their season is often defined by one event. I would bet below normal snowfall north of NYC with an ONI of 2+....south of there you can't rule out a one storm season, especially if its basin wide, as opposed to east.

@griteaterThinking about it within context of 2015-2016, I think the answer maybe that intensity can be the main factor in extreme cases, but for the most part its orientation. Seems like orientation is less important in very weak and very extreme ENSO events.....the former it is other extratropical factors and the latter its the sheer magnitude of ENSO taking proxy.

The mistake I made in 2016 was focusing on the location of the forcing, which I got correct, but failed to realize that an ONI that high is going to overwhelm with warmth, regardless.

See, I actually think orientation/base is more important, but its a chicken/egg argument. The forcing to a large degree governs strength, not vice versa. It's no coincidence ONI is negatively correlated with Modoki value. The huge WWBs that foster the development of intense events keep the eastern regions warm.

It wasn't a fluke...that is what I was saying to snowman. Combine one of the most potent STJs imaginable with a period of dateline forcing and I'd be surprised if that did not happen....individual BYs not withstanding.

I have completed my El Nino composites by both intensity and orientation....those will be out in a blog post within the week. I have determined intensity by mainly ONI, but not 100%....there is some consideration given to both time of peak and MEI....for instance, I consider 1987-1988 to be moderate for winter, even though it peaked as strong late in the summer. I also consider 2009-2010 as moderate, despite a 1.6 ONI peak narrowly qualifying it as strong. due to the weaker MEI (moderate)...I think this better reflects the forcing, as well.....because as you will see, weak of largely synonymous with modiko and east based strong. This makes sense, intuitively, since the stronger WWB needed to achieve a high ONI are not likely to allow the eastern regions to cool much.

Agreed....but if its a basin-wide power-house el nino, I would be surprised if we DIDN'T see a MECS/HECS....don't think you need much luck. I predicted that Jan 2016 event in my outlook from November. 1986-87 is interesting in that it began more like a modoki and actually drifted east into winter...probably why that season was more front-loaded than most el nino events...January was pretty epic and then it ended with a thud.

I'll take that over SW flow.

I have central air, BTW, but I counted that as "turning it on" in June.

Keep doing those details to pay the electric bills. And check your damn trade requests in money ball.

This goes along with my line of thought that this is ultimately going to be more of a basin wide deal, than an extreme east based event.....which is going to keep the east coast in the game for a very sizeable snow event, regardless of whether the ensuing winter is an inferno in the aggregate. I don't see how you prevent episodes in which the forcing sneaks west with that much warm water out there. I still don't think this el nino will break an ONI of 2.0, but if it were to, we are probably looking at more of a 2016 outcome vs 1998.

I really don't see the big deal with this developing in the east....I have just analyzed charts for every el nino event from the fall throughout the winter dating back to 1950, and the only ones that didn't begin well east before translating westward are some of the modoki seasons, like 2003 and 2010. Really all we can glean from this is it won't be a modoki, but that doesn't preclude it from being basin wide or even taking on a westward lean by winter. Every el nino translates westward to some degree, but the trick is to determine how much and where is the starting point. 2002 and 2009 started west of S America, whereas the vast majority begin near the Peru coast.

Starting winter prep this week with el nino research, so its refreshing not to have to battle swamp ass.

This warm season has been great so far...no complaints. Only a couple of obnoxious days.

I had mine on last week.

What do the following winters tend to look like when your area takes so long to hit 90? I am guessing its a mild signal in the NE.....

Yea, he is unfortunately an example of a good meteorologist that has become consumed by the lust for clicks in this social media driven world.

I feel like an event like 1994-1995 is much more reasonable than this super el Nino talk...and BTW (I'm sure you know this), that season was abysmal for cold and snow in the east, so my resistance to the super nova el nino idea has nothing to do with winter.