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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 8.44" on the month IMBY. Onky hit 90 twice...90 on June 1 and 91 on June 2
  2. Obviously there are no guarantees and the low hanging fruit is to remind me of how bad last season was when I thought it would be near normal, but like last season, I am seeing signs that more often than not will lead to a decent winter. The blocking showed up last year and we are good with that 7-8 times out of 10, but the historic anomaly out west was tough to predict. Seasonal forecasters should be likened to an ensemble mean in medium range forecasting.....its tough to ever forecast something that extreme at the outer edge of the forecast range. Yea, the -PDO was predictable, but that was obscene.
  3. I feel like there is plenty of reason for optimism RIGHT NOW.
  4. I will defer to you on this, but I thought 1986-1987 was closer to solar min than this year, which is why I felt like 1957 was a closer match.
  5. Likewise.....I feel like 1957 is better, though for both solar and ENSO.
  6. I think John would agree that it is mildly reassuring to see some of these favorable seasonal solutions in that a power-house canonical el nino is not a given.
  7. 1.23" today. 4.17" since Saturday....of course, my jackpot bonanza regression comes in June.
  8. 1957 also looks like a decent solar match.
  9. 1.6-1.9 ONI....and then when you factor in the W PAC warm pool that is pulling the forcing closer to the dateline, the Relative ONI would probably be like 1.3-1.6. This is why I included moderate el nino events in my first composite last week. Something like 1957 and 1986 is very possible.
  10. It does make me nervous because he is a very good seasonal forecaster, but I can tell you right now this isn't going to end up as east based as 1972 was....and like last season, we also had some tough breaks that year. It wasn't event that warm. At the end of the day, we all bring something to the table and I have learned a lot from raindance. Incorporating precip and temp matches like he does to complement the ENSO work that I do has really helped. But I feel like the devil was in the details last winter....at the end of the day, paltry snowfall was the way to go for the east coast, but most seasonal forecasters that went in that direction also had very little blocking, which wasn't accurate.
  11. We aren't. No way..I have said that dating back to last winter. There is a certain periodicity to those highest magnitude el nino events and we just had one 8 years ago. Historically speaking, usually coming out of a protracted period of cold ENSO we see a healthy basin wide or modoki event. Obviously a modoki event is pretty farfetched considering how biased to the east we have begun, but this isn't going to be east-based.
  12. Look at my latest blog...that matches my basin wide, mod-strong el nino composite forcing perfectly.
  13. Yea, the SST configuration in June is completely and utterly irrelevant as it pertains to winter. Not only can it change, at the end of the day, the forcing is all that matters. If that remains west, no one will care how warm nino 1.2 is.
  14. Its been a semi permanent configuration for several years...really going back to 2016, following the super el nino....that is why we had maritime-nina forcing during the 2018 el nino. I don't think we are going to see east based forcing.
  15. It began as east based and shifted.....it was always more central focused, though. Not sure what Huges is talking about...wasn't east.
  16. 1957-1958 was east based? Not in my book. Let this one mimic that event.....I would take it.
  17. 2.37" since Saturday...getting nailed every day.
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