40/70 Benchmark

I try not to do this, but that Webber ass is getting a shutout in my write up.....can't help myself.

I expect a mild season in the mean because the colder turn is not going to entirely negate the warmer start.

You are missing my point. I am not saying its going to get very cold., but rather we are due for some seasons that are colder east than west. But again, I agree with you that the -PDO makes it unlikely to reverse this year.

That also tells me is due to flip sooner than later, just like it did after the 2000-2008 eastern bonanza...not necessarily this year because I don't think that will be the case.

And if the ONI isn't 2.0 by then, lets kick the evah livn' shit out of that can.

Here is an excerpt from my outlook: Climatologically speaking, an upper echelon el Nino event was always very dubious from even a very extended lead time due to the noted periodicity at which events of this magnitude occur. Since 1972, there have been four el Nino events with an ONI, MEI and RONI all exceeding 2.0, meaning that these four events were all extraordinarily intense relative to the surrounding Pacific basin within a warming climate. And thus extremely well coupled with the atmosphere. The warm ENSO events of 1972, 1982, 1997 and 2015 featured an average periodicity rate of 14.3 years with the lowest return rate being 10 years between the 1972 and 1982 events. Regardless of what guidance implied, another event of this magnitude was never particularly likely a mere 8 years on the heels of the great el Nino of 2015. As the spring, summer and now fall have progressed, it became clearer that this logic was sound, as the el Nino never significantly distinguished itself from a Pacific basin that featured highly anomalous warmth throughout and hence has yet to strongly couple with the atmosphere.

I am hoping to publish late Friday with the family gone and able to stay in the office late.

The index values are great as a general guide, but at the end of the say you need to analyze the pattern for specificity and precision.

You can also get a -PNA with a +PNA if its biased to the west, like last January.

I'll take my chances with a slight la Nina background.

The 1.4C anomaly in region 4 has only been exceeded in 2015 (1.7). This equals the highest that it got in January 2010. This is why the EMI is essentially neutral despite the monster anomalies in the east.

Do you have the link for this daily Modoki index? JAMSTEC just does it monthly...

TBH, it needs to hit 2.0 in the dailies to verify my 1-7-1.9 ONI call, so I hope it does....but no chance of 2.0 ONI.

Zero chance.

Yea, I get that....I would rather keep a bit of la nina appeal in order to ensure some N stream assertion.

That Aleutian Low on the EURO is really far back to the west...wow.

Who was it that posted info on GLAAM a bit back? I don't know much about that and would like to learn more...I think that may do a good job of reflecting what I am referring to.

Ideally, it works like a synoptic overrunning event when the SW flow slams into antecedent arctic cold only in terms of ENSO.....so we have warm ENSO being met with resistance by the antecedent cold ENSO momentum in the atmosphere, which mitigates it enough whereas we don't get the overbearing canonical effect.

Personally, I am okay with a la Nina like gradient in December....I'll take my chances with that.

The point isn't that I expect to to be lethally accurate, but that all of the global guidance is consistently signaling that this isn't going to be a typical blow-torch stronger el Nino. About as much as you can ask for...could they all fail miserably, sure, but would we feel better if they all photocopied 1997-1998?

My guess is that the EURO was led astray by the same issue that killed my forecast....a fraudulent warm ENSO regime. I feel like we are adjusting to that better and this event is appreciably stronger, as you have mentioned. Are the coldest models too cold? Probably, but I just want snow...I don't need Boston Harbor to freeze over.

No, these...

What I like is that the fact that they signal cold bodes very well for avoiding a non-starter type of winter....odds are, we can't overcome a warm start and average +temps and NAO for DM in the aggregate, but will anyone care if we accumulate heavy seasonal totals?