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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, I have a sneaking suspicion that if the winter panels were more reminiscent of a super-strength, canonical el nino, then you wouldn't have ignored them.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    The CANSIPS has a wintry pattern for the east.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Canadian actually looks pretty good to me at H5.....good amount of EPO and NAO blocking, though I don't place much stock in seasonal guidance at this range with respect to the polar domain. The H5 representation does support what I was saying about it being more of a basin-wide with a central focus look....slight east bias. But its very tough to get this look with a strong, east-based canonical el nino.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think the Candian is a bit more central based than a '72, '91 and '97 composite.....not to mention I still not sure that it will end up as strong as that composite would suggest. I have no issue with the PDO parallels....
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm still wrapping up my recap and grading of last season and haven't really looked at much yet, but just based on what raindance has contributed, I am inclined to agree.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think we can all agree the Pacific not being entirely hostile is more important...the NAO just affords a bit of margin for error.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Big +NAO signal, even though it isn't exactly balmy...snowfall is great in the east unless el nino goes Berserk.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is the thing...its a catch 22. It needs to migrate west in order for el nino to flourish......but if you want a mild winter, then its needs to thread the needle in order to trigger el nino sufficiently, while relegating the resultant forcing to the eastern regions. Very possible, but we just don't know that yet.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is my point....we saw the opposite last year, when la nina was east based into November, then abrupty shifted into a modoki for winter.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Rather have that taking place now, than October.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Looks more 1987ish to me than 1973 like in terms of ENSO, but more like 1973 with respect to the PDO. News flash: the outcome in terms of winter will likely fall somewhere in between if that model has the right idea.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    This just underscores my point about assuming that el nino will be prohibitively east based as it pertains to the interests of winter enthusiasts over the eastern US.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    That el nino looks like 1986-1987...no issue with that. I understand the PDO will likely be more negative....just speaking of ENSO.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think he implied any of that. He offered a simple challenge to something that you seem to have an inflated level of confidence in.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I should complete my wrap-up and grading of last season, this week, so I should probably tackle this near the end of May or during June at the latest.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.77" event total in Methuen.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think even NNE should be about safe from additional snowfall...probably safe to start tallying up the seasonal totals.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, never say never, but essentially agree. 1957-1958 is up there, too.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    So far, good....only two days of sweating in the office.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I ignore that until about June...that's when I usually started blogging about/following ENSO. The barrage of twitter quotes all throughout the spring advertising that the world is sure to be eaten alive by ENSO does nothing for me.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks for that volcano info...most of those winters are good out this way, unless el nino really goes bonkers, which we both seem to doubt.
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