40/70 Benchmark

Great research, but intuitively speaking, I would expect that ONI threshold to move higher in the face of a warmer planet.

If the el nino ends up that intense, and the west Pacific cools, which would move the mean seasonal vp east of current guidance, then it would be a blow torch. Let's try this....if the ONI peaks around 2.0 and the forcing sets up near the dateline because the anomalous west PAC warmth remains even more extreme and expansive than that within the ENSO region, how do you feel the winter would play out, snowman?

Not sure how it can argued that a warmer global climate doesn't modify intense el nino events somewhat.

I need more information....what does the west PAC look like and where does the VP set up? And I think above normal snowfall is much more likely than below normal temps, regardless.

I would bet anything its because most of those strong el nino, neg NAO events were modoki, or at least westward leaning....and probably mostly solar ascending, too.

Yea, I didn't get it, either...he must be conforming to twitter by being lazy and focusing on SSTs....its like obsessing on model precip type algorithms when you have a powerful closed H5 s of LI and a strong Hi over se Canada in the dead of winter.

I'm not worried about the ONI number...my focus in on H5 and vp.

That Aleutian low doesn't look to hug the coast that closely to me, which is why you get the lower heights over the se and higher heights over the arctic. I'd take my chances with that CFS output...especially the 1957 analog.

Sure, which is why its puzzling that you seem to exude confidence that this winter will evolve as a typical super-east based event. Its not necessarily that simple. But in the mean time, all we can do is post guidance and speculate, like you are.

Any update?

Yea, my main takeaway is that it doesn't favor a strong PV...not that its a slam dunk for weak.

I think we are going to see a run of +NAO again after the next solar max, unless we see a potent modoki el nino,...Pacific should improve, though....could fathom another stretch like 2013-2015, minus the 100" in 30 days for Boston lol

I'm writing it up right now.

Yes, because we have often discussed how the movement of the NAO is more important for storm diagnostics than the mode. I am finding the same is true with respect to the solar cycle as a predictor of the wintertime polar domain. This is because its not so much linked by the drivers that we use to define the solar min and max, such as UV, total soler irradiance and sunspots, but rather geomagnetic activity and solar wind that are more linked with the behavior of the polar fields. These peak during solar flux, which lags AFTER solar max by a few years.

If the forcing doesn't change, I can assure you he will be.

Please verify.

1) That el nino never really materialized 2) Solar activity was descending, which is much more unfavorable than the ascending portion of the cycle.

Haven't you been communicating modeled 2.0+ peaks now for months?

There are also some cases where ENSO can override, like 2011-2012, 1997-1998 and 2002-2003.

This clears up why some seasons approaching solar max like 1957-1958 and 2014-2015 were great and why 18-19 and 19-20 near solar min were duds.

@Typhoon TipReading up a lot on solar modulation of the polar domain and the relationship actually harkens back to the Archambault research in that its more about modularity, rather than mode...ie its about whether or not we are descending or ascending, as max vs min isn't a huge deal. Interesting- Working on a write up regarding the possible behavior of the polar domain this season because that is where the answers will be found.

Well, that is the thing...the forcing really isn't associated with it right now. MEI, RONI nor forcing currently portend a classic, east-base super el nino. Look back at every super el nino event and see where MEI,etc were as of June-July...not even close. Its not crazy to think that the residual la nina/war west PAC regime will alter things to a degree.

ENSO is indicative of a classic, east based super el nino....but the globe isn't.....nor is the west PAC. This is conveyed by both the RONI and MEI.

Yes, like I said....can totally change. Just saying how it looks now.

In terms of SST configuration, I agree; however, some of these vp plots appear very modoki ish.