40/70 Benchmark

I feel like phasing imperfections like that nipple low can be caused by low western heights, too....because phasing systems are akin to tropical systems in that they are very sensitive to less than ideal permutations in the flow. A bit more ridging out west and lower SE heights could have allowed for a more proficient phase, so I don't want to come off as though its all a product of chance. My forecast definitely wasn't perfect. Very happy with how I handled the artic this year...but what went on out west was just soooo anomalous that it really threw a major wrinkle in things this season.

Main issue I see was a theme all season long....lower western heights than anticipated, even though I did expect lower heights out there.

Not bad call from 4 months out on 11/10.

I will do a full write up next week, but here is a sneak preview....nipple low be damned, I am pretty happy with my forecast.

Moderate to low-end strong, but I don't think it will remain east-based. The uber-strong el nino events are actually the most hostile ENSO state.

Well, its usually over by now...even in a good year.

Yea, I know that...just saying, more often than not our seasonal total would be better in that set up. Coastal plane got porked.

Yea, that was always looking like a mega event.

Must have been some huggers...could have easily ended up like 2002-2003 with 80"+...

BTW, Canadien was the only guidance that nailed the la nina ending up as a modoki event this year.....I ignored it last fall, as everything else was central or east. But it was mild and the la nina really western biased.

Yea, that, 1986, 2002, and 2009 are some progressions that I could see....strong(er) central-west based type of events,.

I guess by "high end", I mean the type of season where I end up with like 90"+...

I guess "high end" is subjective....my snowfall was about average.

Love me some 2002-2003.....I would take a re-try of the 2009-2010 pattern, but all set with a replica redux.

Very plausible with a stronger el nino....

That is patently false. You can get a pretty good idea more often than not if you properly diagnose ENSO.

Strong can be fine, depending on placement, but you can take a high-end season for SNE off of the table with a strong....not that its particularly likely in a given season , anyway.

This. Intensity is vastly overrated, unless its uber-strong, like 2.0 ONI and upwards...its just about impossible to get an event that powerful to be a modoki because the prevalence of the WWBs is prohibitive to a modoki type of evolution.

Hope not.

I honestly have no idea....I know I had been hearing a lot about a potentially cooler summer but seems to have shifted a bit of late. I am the wrong person to ask, though...I think @raindancewx does summer outlooks.

Snowfall notwithstanding, we had some good blocking this past year. We are moving more towards -NAO multidecadal signal IMO.

2012 was fine with me.....

Is that from the Cornel site?

Yea, I think its referred to as the water year, or whatever...that period in the climo base is how you get a true seasonal snowfall snowfall, as opposed to yearly.