40/70 Benchmark

I'm resigned to failure, at this point. It will be interesting to see in which direction it is that I'm not quite far enough in this time.

Yea, for WOR.

2006-2007 was east based.

Normally stronger events are more east based. Best you can do with a super event is basin wide...it has to do with stronger WWB pushing greatest anomalies towards S America , I think.

Cute.

Sure, but not as extreme as you think....

You mean west coast troughing or actual neg PNA? The PNA actually wasn't extremely negative this season...but when it was + (especially in January), it was biased far to the west, which mimicked a strong neg PNA.

I still don't buy it, but we'll see. Would probably be elevation deal...

Yesterday was NNE, but last night included CNE and perhaps even SNE.

1972-1973 was more east-based...that would be another death knell season for the east coast. 2012-2013 was good in SNE, but not so hot mid atl.

My thinking has been modoki, but perhaps raindance has other ideas...obviously its wide open, at this point. The fact that its beginning as east based does nothing for me in terms of significance. I will say, though, that guidance last fall in terms of evolution with regard to placement of greatest SST anomalies was piss poor...I think only the Canadien had it shifting into a modoki. Kudos to raindance for picking up on that because I did not.

Sure you can, come to Methuen.

No nookie on cobble hill

Bury all of the ski lifts and moose foreskin.

Good....ready to move on.

Addressing the Question of Whether or Not Winter is Over Matter of Perspective In the world of weather, and everything else for that matter, perception means everything. Thus when one ponders whether or not winter is in fact "over", the appropriate response is highly subjective in nature and is dependent upon both where one lives, and what the term "winter" entails. It is with this in mind that perhaps the question should be reframed to more "exclusive", as opposed to "inclusive", since describing what the pattern is not is less prone to the distortion that is attributable to viewing through a different lens. It is evident when viewing the 500mb prognostications over the course of the next week that a sustained spring time pattern is not evident for the duration of the month of March. This is not to say that it will not feel present on certain days with full sunshine in the absence of a true arctic air mass, such as today, because it will. That is the benefit of being the recipient of late March strength solar irradiance. However, what should be apparent on the chart above valid next weekend is that there continues to be a fair degree of high latitude blocking working on conjunction with impulses periodically ejecting eastward from a very deep western trough. This implies that it should remain seasonably cold and stormy and if this is a pattern that sounds familiar, it should. A pattern consisting of NAO blocking to the north in conjunction with a polar vortex lobe in the vicinity of Hudson Bay Canada is a pattern that would normally support the threat of significant snows across most of the season even at this late juncture. But, as has been the case for most of the season, the potential for harsh winter weather is mitigated due to the ridge of greater heights over the southeast US in response to the very deep western US trough upstream. This not only acts to limit cold air infiltration and encourage a storm track closer to the coast, or even inland, as opposed to offshore, but the compressed medium between the vortex to the north and the ridge to the south causes the system to shear out on approach this weekend. This means that the answer to the million dollar question regarding whether or now winter is over is dependent upon: A) Where you live, of course. What winter means to you...if it means significant snowfall, then the answer significant snowfall, then the answer is likely "no" to the south of the above line and below approximately 1000' of elevation. Locales to the south of that line and at or above 1000' in elevation, across the northern Worcester hills and Berkshires, could see light accumulations. If this sounds familiar, than it should, since these are the locations that have experienced impactful snowfalls all season long and may continue to do so into next week, when a similar evolution may take place Monday night into Tuesday. Rinse & Repeat-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/addressing-question-of-whether-or-not.html

Congrats me.....my prom date weighs 634lbs, too, but at least mine has two legs.

I think I will do pretty well there.

What I should say is the PNA being biased so far to the west is what killed snowfall...it actually hasn't been that negative. This is why the devil is in the details...on paper, you look at the PNA and think that its not a deal breaker.

This is a perfect example of why I have been so frustrated past several years...I get everyone's sloppy seconds. Too far north last year, and too far south this year. Never fails.

Yea, that is what I hope people understand....don't get me wrong, I will heavily weigh the fact that I blew snowfall into the grading....but its such a crapshoot. I will say, though....the PNA has been more negative than I thought.

Its funny how I have largely hit on the pattern, insane Jan warmth notwithstanding, yet my seasonal snow totals are going to be high for much of SNE. And I remember last fall having to explain why my snowfall totals were relatively "low" given the pattern advertised. Never get asked that question again-

Strongly agree with this guidance.

I'm not sure we have had a winter that has hosed you...I mean, poor SOB, you only get 110" in 2015? Its physically impossible for you to get hosed.