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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I didn't say he was expecting that...but 4th all time el Nino is historic.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    2.0+ peak ONI is historic.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    There is always a gradient somewhere with a neg NAO/PNA pattern...the point is it wasn't a "game-over" month for the entire east coast like February. Lumping March together with February is silly.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, probably why we got a west biased PNA in January that acted like an RNA.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    March wasn't a lost cause at all...snowfall totals don't tell the entire story.....there was a HECS like 15 mi to my west.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Paul Roundy
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think there is any entity, man or machine, that accurately predicted the depth of that western CONUS trough.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Zero chance.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    'Warmest waters continue to straddle the dateline"....
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its both...think of it like the loaded dice analogy to describe GW in that the we have greater potential for warmer outcomes. The pattern does that with respect to snowfall, but it doesn't mean it never deviates....just like we still have colder seasons despite the background signal of GW.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll take 1963, 1965 and 1968, gladly....3/7 -PDO/el nino isn't horrible. ...it comes down to the polar domain, no matter how I view things.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Just let him go...if he can't see it at this point then he never will.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would gladly take 1995 verbatim...that is actually my #1 season...2014 is #2. I would take the 2009 pattern again and have another roll of the dice.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree with you at all. Perhaps the most likely outcome, sure.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I thought it was decent down there but decided to play it safe....My presence around this place predates subforums, so I know it pisses people off when someone from New England decides what they should consider acceptable. lol
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right...I am. Doesn't mean an awful season down there, but it just limits ceiling...like big STJ does here. I'm sure you would take a 1977-1978, though that was +PDO....-PDO and n stream dominant is more like 2004-2005, which you wouldn't like, but I still think el nino is strong to ensure a bonafide STJ presence this season.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    In December, I agree.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Could also mean more N stream involvement, which is a trade I would make...give me 2005 over 2010 any day of the week.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Some gradient like periods, as well maybe.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like we endure some unfavorable la nina like stretches this season.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I was fine with how you did it...I got it. Bottom line is that the PDO will prevent a very cold winter in the east and the polar domain will need to be favorable for a good season.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Of course it is....but compare 1994 to the other 4. That is all I was saying. Clearly a +PDO modoki has colder potential than a negative PDO season. I don't think anyone expects a frigid eastern US winter.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    94-95 also had residual impact from Pinatubo...94-95 and 2006-2007 were also descending solar, which bolsters PV IMO....there is a solar lag, which is why the seasons lag, so it stands to reason that the most hostile seasons for high latitude blocking are following solar max.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Absolutely agree. Been my stance all summer and fall...also, if you look at the periodicity of these uber el ninos, we just aren't quite there yet....its only been 8 years.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Right....but in the east......where most of us live.....they were drastically different and that is because of the polar domain. I understand your point and its valid, but I feel like it was confusing to bin them that way without specifiying.
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