40/70 Benchmark

Just FYI....what is equally reprehensible and inimical to the productive dialogue that fosters learning is assigning an emotional bias to every forecast effort that verifies too cold and/or snowy. That detracts just as much as any biased forecast in and of itself. Its not advisable to impugn the efforts of others like that when there is clearly defined logic and ratioanle for why the forecast did not work out. When we have a mammoth marine heat wave working in concert with the general background GW signal to produce an unprecedented magnitude of warmth spanning an entire decade that is going to cause most seasonal forecast efforts to exhibit a cold/snowy bias in the aggregate, is it not?? Raindance has been the best and even he would admit that he hasn't been quite warm enough. I'm not even sure @bluewave, who has had a great handle on this, expected this magnitude of warmth. I think we need to cut people some slack on the cold/snow bias crap.

If its weak in terms of ONI and moderate by RONI stadards, then that shouldn't be a death knell in and of itself....but if we can't get the waves out of the MC then nothing else really matters, anyway. I have learned that the hard way over the course of the past several years.

Sure, but it wasn't that extreme....and the rest of the extra tropical Pacific was not has hostile as it has been the past few years.

I have no idea where this perception comes from. He is on a short list of "must reads" every season and there was plenty of talk that he had an unfavorable outlook yet again last fall. I'm not sure whether you have amnesia or what, but I along with some others had countless debates with him about how the forcing would not act like an east-based super el Nino....which was correct, but he was right that it would not matter. I'm not sure on which planet his opinion was "deemphasized"....nor am I sure who forecasted a colder than average winter or one with above average snowfall?? I saw some forecasts that had near normal snowfall, incluyding my own, but none were particularly robust.

Yes, this is a potential pathway for a decent (sneaky) season in the NE when it looks ostensibly very hostile yet again.

Would be congruent with his idea of a more -WPO next season.

No one should ever be "sold" on an extreme anomaly...unless its a DM warm anomaly in today's climate.

No, not for this season. That will be more of a factor for 2025-2026 if it peaks this season.

It takes a good year following solar max for the solar wind to really kick up the geomaetnic energy. Its not immediate. But regardless, obviosuly we aren't seeing a 1995-1996 or anything. lol

Which means we can probably get away with some bout(s) of blocking this year, theoretically speaking. Not suggesting it will be a favorable season per se, but perhaps not a wall-to-wall death star PV. Doesn't mean it can't end up like that, either....just something to think about-

SAL is expected this time of year....there are a few reasons that we don't usually see long-tracking CV systems in June. The earliest I recall is Bertha in early July of 1996.

Fair question with respect to anything pertaining to seasonal forecasting.

First of all, I'm not necessarily referring to a -NAO/AO season....I wrote "episodes of high latitude blocking". Second, my point is that geomagnetic energy and solar wind peak during the descending phase, not solar max...thus the descending phase is most hostile...more so than max.

If the solar peak ends up delayed, then that also delays the hostile period of geomagnetic particle disbursing solar wind that makes episodes of high latitude blocking so elusive.

Def. the warm season in a New England weather thread...

In the eyes of Tip, the Hadley Cell is responsible for everything...from climate change to sperm subsidnce (joke, John....not doubting CC)

Yep. The ONI is less and less important, anyway as the globe continues to warm.

Doubt that, but we shall see.

Yes, same page. Very fair and reasonable take.

We have certainly been seeing the crap patterns that they were last decade...save for the dry. Their awful winters were also very dry, but our's have just been warm.

Well, the Canadian was showing precip patterns that matched with phase 6 last year. I remember raindance referencing that as supportive for his outlook, so I agree that it will be important to watch that as we get closer. Odds are this run of futility will end when no one expects it to.

Kudos to you on that. I completely misinterpreted what the Pacific warm pool meant and how it would relate to el Nino.

I agree with this. I feel like we should enter a very favorable period around the turn of the decade due to the solar min and potential end of the long term -PDO phase working to trigger some positive regression. But if we are still in this horrid stretch by the early 2030's, then something is probably up.

Who knows, maybe coupling with tremendous Atlantic activity changes things. That mega-El Nino also had something to do with arranging this configuration IMO. Bottom line is I don't expect this configuration to be permanent and its demise will likely be of tropical origin. I know you are heading towards it being permanent.

That has been my theory on how the earth will correct that persistent west PAC warm pool.