40/70 Benchmark

GW is definitely real and anthropogenic to some degree, but the thing is the majority of it manifests nocturnaly during the cold season. Yes, it is absolutely causing more frequent positive departures during the day, but it's often resulting in situations in which we register large mean monthly anomalies despite a relative to dearth of really warm daytime hours. January 2021 was another great example.

I said that there wasn't "exotic" warmth near the coast of SNE. Enough with the spinning BS. Tough to justify getting more then 5PPD when you waste them on this sophomoric shit....yea, please, pretty please give us more of this.

No, I said it wasn't obscenely warm where I live.

I read your outlook, which is why I gave you credit for it...I said "NE"...not mid Atlantic.

I think we will get some arctic air in mid February.

I think it has something to do with the EPO/WPO, which has been pretty hostile this year. Raindance did well with that, too.

12z locks the cold on the other side of the globe again.

This January actually reminded me a bit of last January with the Pacific ridge leading to a western biased +PNA, which acted as a deep RNA. Does that look like a +PNA....becuase it was.

Take note of how biased the MJO route penduluum has been in favor of the right hand side...that is not by chance.

Well, December partially sucked because of strong El Nino.....not really January.

Is it crazy to see how this ends up in phase 3, 4 or 5 right as February ends?

I honestly just debating about very extended lead...nothing more or less.

It is to a degree.....this is why the forcing has been biased so far west relative to the max SST anomalies....why December was warm and why January looked like a La Nina. And yes, the PAC jet extension made December more extreme, agreed. But there is no denying there is residual cool ENSO GLAAM....this El Nino has some La Nina DNA cooked into it.

We'll see....hopefully I am wrong. ...its roughly a two week+ window IMO, then winter is over and out-

The structure of the Pacific dipole still favors a predisposition towards the MC and often times that really extended guidance will adjust to account for that at shorter leads.

Don't underestimate the ability of this El Nino to end up in the MC at least excuse imaginable.

I can see the MJO reemerging in the MC continent, which adds up with my analog composite.

I could see it run some into March, but I think the 10th is pushing it....

I'd give it a good 2 weeks or so...

This is not me saying you suck its really just me picking up on you not being very good.

Hey, Jerry, how much did you get in that huge storm back on the 7th?

Around a foot.

I think it takes until sometime in early March, when the PV starts to tighten up again and the MJO re-emerges from the COD into the Maritime continent. That is also a subjective statement.....I was thinking in terms of snowfall...not a tall taks near the coast.

February 2024 Preview The previously referenced 1/22 to 2/5 storm window is likely to conclude with tremendous additional unrealized potential, as the combination of a southward displaced OMEGA block and a Pacific short wave acting as a kicker will ensure that a powerful southern stream shortwave can not amplify on the east coast to any degree. Thus the month of February is destined to begin just as January ended, with a large degree of unrealized potential. But the question of whether or not that will remain common theme during the month is much more nebulous. Quiet Start to February 2024 May be Misleading February Analogs: 1958,1964,1966,1973,1977,1978,1980,1983,1995,2003,2007,2010(x2) The world of weather can often be quite deceiving, as evidenced on a monthly level by near record levels of precipitation in the absence of extreme warmth resulting in so little snowfall along the east coast to date. There can also be deception on a seasonal level, as Mother Nature can often be quite coy about what may stand between the general public and the highly coveted a reunion with spring. And there continue to be numerous signs, as there have in past El Niño seasons, that there answer just maybe plenty. This was strongly implied last fall: The apex of intense high latitude blocking conjoins with frequent PNA flexes to mark the pinnacle of the season for winter weather fans across the eastern US, especially the mid Atlantic region. The coastal plain should be the focus, as more winter storm threats should follow the early month NESIS window. The culmination of the seasonal progression of El Niño results in a Modoki like configuration as the event decays. The recovery of the PV is accompanied by more prominent RNA to fuel modification and an early end to winter throughout most of the east late in the month and into early March. But not before another Archambault window from about February 11 through March 3, which may also place an emphasis on the Mid Atlantic. Here is the February 2024 forecast H5 composite (1951-2010): (1991-2010) The transition from canonical early season form to full-fledged Modoki is apparent. February is obviously the coldest month of the DM composite across the east. February 2024 Forecast Temp Anomalies: 1951-2010: Temperatures range from near normal to as much as 2F below across New England to as much as 2-4F below normal across the Mid Atlantic. 1991-2020: February 2024 Forecast Precip Anomalies: 1951-2010: 1991-2020: The general thesis for this month continues to be well supported. Although perhaps the forecast departures of -2 to -4F over the mid Atlantic and near normal to +2 over New England will ultimately prove too cool yet again. Time will tell- But what does remain clear is that the apparent quiet first half of the month seems reflected not only in the forecast analog package: But also by latest guidance. The frustration will then mount for fans of winter, as a reinvigoration of the Pacific jet leads to another warm up next week, despite the eventual return of high latitude blocking. This is illustrated via the ensemble mean as simply a stochastic reaction to the breakdown of the current OMEGA block. The ridge weakens as is translates eastward and over the forecast area, as more energy simultaneously crashes heights to the west as part of a Rosby wave train reaction. This warm up will be ephemeral in nature, as the MJO is forecast by both the GFS and European suites to decrease in amplitude as it enters phase 8 by mid month. This is congruent with tropical forcing moving into the central Pacific/Indian Ocean and weakening before potentially reemerging in the Maritime continent to induce a warm up either very late in the month of February or early in March. This coincides with the reconfiguration of the Pacific in a potent Aleutian low regime with a powerful western CONUS ridge. 00z EPS: 00z GEFS: 00z GEPS: The reinvigoration of high latitude blocking/weakening PV will this time potentially be team with the reconfigured Pacific to culminate in a period of cross polar flow and a great deal of storminess. In the mean time, enjoy the break in the weather because the bulk of winter still awaits-