40/70 Benchmark

We'll see what happens.....there is still room for a 1958 like flip, at least to a degree in terms of snowfall. It will not be that cold, no.

Except that pattern in mid late January was pretty text book.

Yes there was.

There are some similairties with respect to the cold being in Eurasia, but you can't complely disregard the differences, which is probably why the mid atlantic is near normal snowfall as opposed to that year, which saw just about no snow there.

I would say if I had to point to a "smoking gun", so to speak....it would be the +EPO.....that is probably why it has been so warm. But even with the warmth, there have been chances to snow..January left a lot on the table and I still had nearly 30". I feel like have been pretty accurate with respect to the El Nino, polar fields and the PDO/PNA.

I need something to break right....I feel like the last two years, last season and this one, I have had damn good seasonal efforts that just haven't amounted to anything where it counts...snowfall. I feel like I have largely had the pattern right, but it just refuses to snow. You try to point out great looks to validate the forecast and it just gets eye rolls.

+2.5" Sunday-Monday 27.5"

Yea, that would be the grand finale to this season....a Feb 2010 reenactment.

Well, at the risk of drawing a slew of jagged eye roles, I have liked mid Feb through early March since last fall. But will I be suprised if we get boned again? Nope.

@RUNNAWAYICEBERGJust about time to start draft coordination.

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2024/01/poorly-forecast-sunday-monday-storm.html D Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call:

Poorly Forecast Sunday-Monday Storm Here are the final snowfall amounts from the storm that began on Sunday and ended early this morning. Versus the Eastern Mass Weather Final Call: The forecast across the elevated far interior was fairly accurate, however, the snowfall was significantly over forecast across the densely coastal plane of the eastern and souther portions of the region. More specifically, 1-3" fell where 2-5" was forecast along the immediate coast of eastern Mass. And 4-7" was forecast instead of the 2-5" that fell across interior Eastern Mass, throughout the route 128 and 495 belts. The gradient was also sharper than forecast across southern Connecticut, Rhode Island, the cape islands., where little to no snowfall accumulated rather than the 1-3" forecast. The primary reason for the forecasting failure is that the precipitation never grew heavy enough to overcome very marginal temperatures. This was an issue that was flagged on much of guidance prior to the event, as evidenced by fairly weak lift that was not colocated within the favored snow growth region in the mid levels of the atmosphere, which is between approximately 12 and -18C. As it turned out this bette lift did in fact materialize, but it further north across central New Hampshire, where several inches did fall last night. Final Grade: D

I think 1968-1969 pulled it off for us and AK.

I'm fine with no nuisance events for now.

Congrats, Florida

Regardless, everyone agrees that it absolutely blows. I love a cold, snowy holiday season.

I'm not missing anything.

2014, 1968, 1957, 1965, to name several....

If I equal January output from February, I am above average. I would need like 5" in March to finish climo. I get what he means, though....no one likes punting the holiday season.

Well, if we scored big in February, then the season would be fine from a statistical standpoint...I understand you like to get snowfall early during solar nadir. That said, I am dissapionted February is a punt through mid month.

I get that, but you can say that about seasonal forecasting in general.....part of the appeal to me is recognizing themes and tendency within analog seasons, so I give him credit.

He illustrated how the NE has a curious snow hole during -PDO El Niño seasons....not even necessarily due to huge warm departures....just a screw hole, of sorts....like 1973.

Pacific certainly isn't helping....it's a bit of both... bad luck and a bad PAC.

That said, yes...the Pacific is more important.

As much eye rolling as this will elicit right now, I still don't totally buy that.....some of this is just plain bad luck after decades of snowing at least excuse imaginable. Shit like not garnering enough separation between PV lobes has and will always happen in any type of regime.