40/70 Benchmark

High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather

I have started using sensible weather analogs by ENSO state...its a good way to keep the forecast composite "honest" becuase I have years like 1982 and 2015 in there, which I know damn well are to strong for ENSO....but they are decent matches the pattern.

One thing to keep an eye on is that it looks as though guidance has continued to rush the progression of warmer waters to the west throughout the summer and into the fall....IE a positive bias with respect to the EMI.

1957, 1965 and 1991 seems like good ONI analogs.....with 1994 and 2015 being the best EMI analogs. Of course, RONI and MEI are another story altogether.

I could see OND...like the statistical mean. But if you feel strongly, then go with your gut....I just use guidance and historical benchmarks, as I am certainly no expert on tropical Pacific weather patterns. But I feel like the late start (region 3.4) may be a red flag against a fast peak.

Considering the 60's featured a predominately very weak PV, this underscores the importance of refraining from the generalization of events, much like we have learned to do with respect to ENSO.

Agree on the range, but most guidance has NDJ or at least OND.

Yea, I forecast using ranges in increments of .3 for the sake of verification....only reason for the difference.

Me neither....most of those +IOD/el nino seasons had other prominent factors that contributed to the ++AO/NAO IMHO.

Hilighted years are la nina/el nino.

1963-1964 is an interesting case....basin-wide, moderate el nino with +IOD and descending solar.....I never would have guessed it would have been a cooler, blockier winter. My guess is descending solar maybe less of a detriment when near minimum, like Larry was saying. Maybe a volcanic influence (Agung)?

Negative IOD years 1960 1964 1974 1981 1989 1992 1996 1998 2010 2014 2016 2021 Positive IOD years 1961 1963 1972 1982 1983 1994 1997 2006 2012 2015 2019

I Like those graphics. Thanks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/

1.7 to 1.9 for the sake of specificity.

Do you have the warm phase version of that graphic? TIA...

At this point, I think a blend of the statistical and dynamic works.

Thanks. Aligns pretty well with my thoughts.

Fair enough. Thanks.

Well, I think there is a decent shot December is mild, so....not sure why that means that the pattern can't change later on, as is often the case during el nino. Tell me something...you said the WV hit the N Hemisphere last January.....yet March featured very anomalous high latitude blocking, which I correctly predicted in November btw. But if this December has a strong PV, then it must be due to the water vapor??? Why wasn't March as telling for you as this December apparently will be? I mean, the WV had propagated into the NH by that point, right?? Show me a winter month in the early 90s with that type of blocking on the heels of Pinatubo....

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/08/preliminary-analysis-of-extratropical.html?m=1

But how did the Euro's h5 pattern look?

Right.....but as we have been discussing, this el nino is going to have some fundamental differences from that one. This is why many of the seasonals look the way thay they do.

06-07 was a torch....again, descending solar/powerful PV.

It's a good analog, aside from Pinatubo and descending solar, which I think explains the polar domain. I know snowman feels as though this is Pinatuno 2.0, but we disagree on that.