40/70 Benchmark

I'll take that over SW flow.

I have central air, BTW, but I counted that as "turning it on" in June.

Keep doing those details to pay the electric bills. And check your damn trade requests in money ball.

This goes along with my line of thought that this is ultimately going to be more of a basin wide deal, than an extreme east based event.....which is going to keep the east coast in the game for a very sizeable snow event, regardless of whether the ensuing winter is an inferno in the aggregate. I don't see how you prevent episodes in which the forcing sneaks west with that much warm water out there. I still don't think this el nino will break an ONI of 2.0, but if it were to, we are probably looking at more of a 2016 outcome vs 1998.

I really don't see the big deal with this developing in the east....I have just analyzed charts for every el nino event from the fall throughout the winter dating back to 1950, and the only ones that didn't begin well east before translating westward are some of the modoki seasons, like 2003 and 2010. Really all we can glean from this is it won't be a modoki, but that doesn't preclude it from being basin wide or even taking on a westward lean by winter. Every el nino translates westward to some degree, but the trick is to determine how much and where is the starting point. 2002 and 2009 started west of S America, whereas the vast majority begin near the Peru coast.

Starting winter prep this week with el nino research, so its refreshing not to have to battle swamp ass.

This warm season has been great so far...no complaints. Only a couple of obnoxious days.

I had mine on last week.

What do the following winters tend to look like when your area takes so long to hit 90? I am guessing its a mild signal in the NE.....

Yea, he is unfortunately an example of a good meteorologist that has become consumed by the lust for clicks in this social media driven world.

I feel like an event like 1994-1995 is much more reasonable than this super el Nino talk...and BTW (I'm sure you know this), that season was abysmal for cold and snow in the east, so my resistance to the super nova el nino idea has nothing to do with winter.

Feel free to bump this is in 5 months, but I feel its every bit as silly to imply that some of the strongest ENSO events ever observed are viable analogs at this early juncture. In fact, I think that is worse than being open minded about the ultimate DM orientation in early June. And I get what Paul Roundy's stance is ....you've made that abundantly clear; understood. But last I checked, Paul has bowled movements and bad days like the rest of us, so I would suggest endeavoring to engage in independent thought at some point.

This strikes me as potentially a season like 1992...in that it may not be remembered for the volume of intense storms, but rather that one intense storm that manages to avail of the warm SSTs by avoiding the shear and striking a major population center.

I get why the obsession with winter can get obnoxious..we all have our things. The constant barrage of copy/paste jobs from twitter are also like nails on a chalkboard.....strikes me as a very lazy, haphazard means of promulgating an agenda.

2002 maybe a bit too far west in comparison, but I have been saying all spring that the steadfast Canadian seasonal reminds me of the 1986-1987 el nino event with respect to placement and strength. Funny you mention 2004, as I was thinking of that year when I read Raindance's comment about a stormy but not particularly cold winter in the NE...just as an anecdotal aside, not claiming its necessarily a viable analog.

Its a classic basin-wide el nino....been pretty consistent.

I'll take the under on that.

I have never really felt like a super el nino was particularly likely. That doesn't mean that there aren't a million other ways to pull off another crappy NE winter, but I just don't see the super el nino idea panning out.

I would take my chances with a weaker version of 2015-2016...that was basin wide. Most healthy el nino events move from west to east...I don't think particular evolution in and of itself is very unusual.

If we THEORETICALLY (not a prediction) end up a with a low-end moderate ONI/weak RONI season, then the orientation isn't nearly as important because extra tropical drivers will play a larger role in dictating the pattern around the hemisphere next winter. For instance, 1976-1977 was very east based, but it was very weak. Before the climate change gestapo pillars me, my only point is that it was cold despite being an east based el nino...not that anything remotely resembling that level of cold is possible today.

Weren't we seeing that most of last winter?

This a great example of why this forum is such a great tool....the sharing of information is such a catalyst for growth. We all bring different methods and insight to the table.

I would purchase that. Your methodology is very interesting, and I have learned a lot from it. Its helped me to become less over reliant on ENSO as I have tried incorporating some of the temp and precip matches. That undoubtedly saved me from a much worse forecast had I just stuck with my original way, given that I incorrectly expected an eastern tilted la nina. The precip and temp maps prompted me to use some analog seasons that were pretty unsavory for eastern US winter enthusiasts, such as 2001 and 2011....which was a red flag against going for a big winter. I never, ever would have included those had I not began doing those temp/precip matches. This is the main reason why I went with less snow (around normal) relative to what one would expect given the type of blocky pattern that I had anticipated. I remember getting questions about why I wasn't going for more snow based on the pattern I had depicted. Turns out that was on the right track, but just not accentuated enough.

.36" total here today.

40.3.