40/70 Benchmark

I will be UP ALL NIGHT to see if the 00z EURO does it.

Blending two wrongs to make a right?

That would probably be a foot of slush here.

Admire the commitment to limiting QPF in Methuen by whatever means possible-

Nah, Lips n hips

This storm is going to cause aneurysms.

I have been blogging for 9 years, and this is the most difficult event I have seen.

Nah...that run would deform me.

Its just a first call....but I also feel like intense H7 fronto may offset some the downslope down there. Look at the CTRV in Feb 2001...nuking mid levels can remedy alot of atmospheric short comings.

Man, 1' on a mean is nuts...granted I'm not getting 10:1, but still...

Downslope will be worse off of ORH hills.

First Call for Major & Protracted Winter Storm Monday Night Into Wednesday Power Outages & Coastal Flooding Concerns in Largest Event of Season Dating back to last fall, Eastern Mass Weather utilized a combination of long range forecasting techniques, which included extensive ENSO analysis, identifying of both sensible weather and extra tropical Pacific analogs, to hone in on the first half of March as a window for a potentially memorable winter storm. With the passage of time, it had become apparent by latter February that the culmination of this window of opportunity would be during the second week of March. This due at last in part, to the lagged propagation of the major disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that took place in during the middle portion of February. The timing of this evolution has resulted in a wonderful display of forecasting symmetry given that it coincides very closely with the year 1956, which was identified by Eastern Mass Weather as top ENSO and extratropical Pacific analog last fall. This is a season that also featured a potent bout of early season blocking that resulted in little snowfall across the area until the month of March. Here is how that month looked during the major winter storm that deposited 10-20"+ snowfall across much of the area on Mach 19, 1956. As compared to the synoptic 500mb pattern for early next week. While there are some differences, most notably the 500mb low is not diving as deeply to the south, this comparison is intended to convey similarities between the two respective winter seasons, than it is to imply synoptic comparisons to the storms, per se. Thus while the storm itself may not be a viable analog, the season is and it is no coincidence that a major storm appears imminent during this same timeframe 67 years later, which may result in a comparable snowfall. Synoptic Situation: The northern stream energy ultimately responsible for suppling a large portion of the energy for next week's storm came crashing onshore in the Pacific northwest on Friday. The system will continue traveling eastward and will arrive in Minnesota on Sunday AM. Then on Monday, the system will begin to dig in response to a building upstream ridge over the Rockies. This ultimately causes it to begin interacting with a smaller parcel of energy moving up from the southern stream as the energy from the northern stream begins to infuse in to this system. This process continues during the day on Tuesday. Until the phase finally completes by Tuesday afternoon in the vicinity of Block Island, RI. And the new intense H5 low drifts eastward, cuts off and virtually stalls overnight Tuesday, which prolongs the impact into midweek before it finally weakens and drifts away. The precise interaction between these two parcels of energy will determine where exactly the heaviest snow falls, which is subject to change, but obviously higher terrain locales are favored for the heaviest amounts given the time of year and marginal antecedent airmass. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break out during the day on Monday in advance of the main system over southwestern New England. This will result from an inverted trough due to the conduit of energy feeding in from the northern stream to feed the developing storm. And will begin as primarily rain the lower elevations since it will be light in intensity, as heavy rates are needed to advect colder air from above downward in order to off set solar heating at this late juncture of the season. However, snow is likely from the onset over higher terrain. 1PM Monday: Snowfall should remain largely relegated to the higher terrain into Monday evening, as the most significant precipitation remains focused around the inverted trough, while lighter more sporadic precipitation overspreads the remainder of the region. 7PM Monday: Precipitation then overspreads the remainder of southern NewEngland Monday evening, beginning as rain near the coast and inside of rt 495, and snow further inland. Heaviest and steadiest precipitation continues to be focused on the inverted trough through the evening. 1AM Tuesday: After midnight, the the focus for the precipitation begins to consolidate more on the coastal storm itself, as the nascent system begins to congeal and intensify. And the rain/ snow line begins to translate both lower in elevation and closer to the system. 4AM Tuesday: By dawn on Tuesday, the more ferocious phase of the storm is underway, as it explosively deepens while approaching the cape and islands from the south. Heights crash and the transition to snowfall collapses to the lower elevations and to the coast. 7AM Tuesday: The strengthening solar irradiance begins losing the battle with snowfall by mid morning, as travel becomes exceedingly difficult to impossible. Winds increase dramatically and combine with very heavy snowfall to produce blizzard conditions at times. 10AM Tuesday: The most ferocious portion of the storm occurs around midday with snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour and wind gusts out of the NE in excess of 50mph, which will pile water against the shore and batter the coast at time of high tide. The combination of heavy wet snow and strong winds will likely result in power outages, so please prepare. 1PM Tuesday: A deep easterly fetch across the interior will cause down sloping in the Connecticut river valley, where significantly less snow will fall then other interior locations. Conversely, this will be an upslope flow that will enhance snowfall on the east slope of the Worcester hills and Berkshires. The very heaviest bands of snowfall look to focus across central areas of the region, on the NW periphery of very intense 700mb frontogensis, with the highest amount over the hills in this band. Heavy snow will continue into early Tuesday evening, with rain over the cape and islands. 4PM Tuesday: Before finally a bating somewhat after dark on Tuesday. 7PM Tuesday: However, since the system drifts away so slowly, light snowfall continues during the overnight Tuesday and into early Wednesday AM. 1AM Wednesday: Lingering all day and finally ending Wednesday evening. 7PM Wednesday: FIRST CALL: Final Call to follow on Sunday-

https://easternmassweather.blogspot.com/2023/03/first-call-for-major-protracted-winter.html

I don't want it further south...I'm already on the edge of LBS.

I called it last week....told Will and Scott..so fuckin* predictable.

Steve always in the thick of it....like 10 in a row

Unreal....porked on another biggie. Just never ends. I need to move

LBSW for me.

Better run, but struggling to get precip into my area....WTF

South of islands at hr 84

Make your picks

I knew you'd get that lol

Does that mean more snow in Rhode Island?

Yes. If the N stream is more assertive, the phased system will develop further NW......more dominant s stream and its further east. Its about how the parcels of energy interact while vying for proxy during the phasing process.

That would mean timing the phase perfectly because it tends to elongate during the phasing process, when that inverted trough results form the conduit of energy feeding in from the N stream.