40/70 Benchmark

Yep. No argument.

Keep me posted on that formula, but I'm not optimistic. I was actually on a roll with the AO/NAO for a few years, but last year I was off..expected it close to neutral and it was pretty +.

I don't think anyone has been doubting the potential for a high Atlantic ACE. Would bump analogs like 1998 and 2005. You could argue 1995 and 2017, too, but I don't like those years for other reasons.

My honest opinion is that there will be more down seasons and probably a decrease in average snowfall, but when we get it the ceiling will be higher than ever. I have said before that this is a trend I am fine with. I will gladly pass on a few 6-8" events in exchange for one 20"er.

Now post the snowfall trend for the same period if you want to provide a truly accurate portrayal.

Well, its more of player in La Nina seasons and I think it ties into the extra tropical Pacific more....if we see a very high ACE, may mean more of a -WPO this year is my guess. My main qualm with 2007 is not ENSO, but rather QBO and potentially ACE.

This is actually something that I was privy to....the disconnect between the MEI and ONI means that ENSO will not be as prominent a driver and thus extra tropical influences will be. What I failed to recognize is just how anaomalous the WPO would become and that is what ran the show. While it can meana colder outcome due to the reduced likeliehood of a stronger ENSO event inundating theh igher latitudes with warmth, that isn't necessarily the case in the event we end up withman extra tropical driver doing the same thing, which is what the ++WPO/-PDO combo did.

I think you are weighing ONI too heavily....the extra tropical Pacific was actually fairly similar to 2007 this past winter with the potent +WPO and -PDO. That was also another season in which the forcing was waaaay west, but it just didn't matter. Why? El Nino wasn't driving the bus...the hostile extra tropical Pacific was. The MEI was actually a very good match...they aren't as far apart intensity wise as you may think and neither were huge players. Being overreliant on the MEI on the heels of what happened last season is indicative of an unwillingess to adjust IMO.

I agree. If we manage another disaster winter in the NE, it will be due to the Pacific....though you can never rule out one well-time NAO pulse leading to a game-changing storm.

1995-1996 isn't even a part of the dicussion IMHO....I was more referencing years like 2007-2008.

If anything, this is likely to be a case in which the ONI may peak at say 1.4, but the MEI/RONI are like 1.7. Same page.

Only caveat being that most of the big gradient seasons occured during -QBO if you look.

If anything, I think there may be less recurves than typical this year.

I don't think its going to make much of a difference because the PV is probably going to be very stout, anyway. The tenor of this winter will again be reliant on the Pacific....shocking, I know. Agree on a very well coupled La Nina....should be like 2022-2023 in that respect, as well as the quick shift west.

Yea, puff-puff pass on the '95-'96 analog.

Hope Allison and the kids are off getting ice cream

Hit 81 yesterday.

Yea, no argument there. Like I said, the indexes do not necessirly encompass the ideal domain space to maximixe the correlation to our weather, but I just forecast and report the calculated numbers in addition to the actual sensible weather and H5 pattern.

I really don't see much of a path to a nice season south of New England (save for one rogue, large event), assuming we are right about the NAO/PDO.....New England, especially north of the CT/RI borders, can sneak by if there is a ton of cold in se Canada and the PV is positioned correctly.

They have had some awful years by their standards...I mean, if you are going to judge it my Maryland climo, then never.

We defenitely need to see what the ACE does, though before resigning ourselves to another full-on catastrophe. 1988 was a normal ACE year and we should top that, but lets see how it plays out. 2007 was also near normal, but 1998 was very active....181.7

Why do you feel that is the case? Strength/positioning of the subtropical ridge?

Makes sense to me. How do you feel about 2007 as an analog? Obviously I don't expect quite that much snow in NNE, but I could see that type of pattern qualitatively speaking. QBO will be a poor match, but that wasn't a blocky season, anyway. I think we all agree there shouldn't be much blocking next season.

I don't think it's that low....2017-2018 was very good and 2020-2021 and 2021-2022 were okay.

Yea, well the calculation is what it is. I did note the westward displacement of the PNA.