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40/70 Benchmark

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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark

  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    TBH, I would prefer a moderate-strong event in terms of ONI...all set with another 2018-2019.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why all of that MJO talk? This is an ENSO thread!!
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    I feel like weakening still has an impact on March.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    The forcing is very relevent to ENSO, as its dictated by ENSO. It's like calling posts about storm surge OT in a hurricane thread.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    .81" on the day here.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    Probably February.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    People need to remember that huge storms are relatively rare for a reason. It's not just about getting teleconnection bingo, but you also need to hit on the right wave spacing and relative intensity and orientation of each said index. The latter is often more difficult to achieve than the teleconnections bingo...that is one thing I have learned the past few years during this seemingly interminable cool ENSO stretch.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    PDO makes me suspect 3 things about this winter: 1) Polar Domain will make or break this season 2) Inceased risk of deconstructive interference with amplifying waves during neg NAO periods..this ties into 3. 3) Idea of a mid Atlantic focus for snowfall with appreciably strong el nino events is less likely this year....at least in terms of historic deals. We may see some sheared out, attenuating waves dump moderate snows down there either fail to turn the corner and/or dizzle out with latitude.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    It probably will be strong, but big diff between 1.7 and 2.3.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, this ssta distribution would be worrisome if it were December. Do me a favor, look at a ssta anomaly chart from November of last year, and then look at one from January as you recall the overall tenor of last season.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    2017-2018 was a very good season.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Haha Full disclosure, no way would I be able to do that with my blog and all ..I just wanted to see how confident you were. I will definitely give you credit if you are right, though.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    So, put your posting rights where your keyboard is....lol
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'll bet you right now the ONI doesn't hit 2.0....loser can't post between 12/1 and 3/31. You even have less to lose with the 5/day deal working for ya....
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Makes sense to me.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, you have been banging this drum for years.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Kind of....RONI attempts to provide a better idea of the intensity of ENSO relative to a warming ambient planet, which obviously plays a role in the strength of the ocean-atmosphere coupling that MEI measures, so it is no coincidence that efforts to add historical context to the current MEI value yield similar results with respect to like efforts pertaining to the RONI. Neither stack up with past super el nino events at this time.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Its meant to measure the intensity of the ocean-atmosphere coupling, rather than the shear magnitude of the particular ENSO event.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Gonna be about the polar domain. Point being the expected strength and configuration of this el nino is not prohibitive to blocking.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I said the same thing with respect to the RONI... AMJ figures for historical reference. 2015 .73 1997 .84 1982 .68 1972 .80 2023 is .07, which is comparable to 2009 (-.09) and 1986 (-.08).
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    My point is not to expect a big winter...odds are it will be above normal temp wise to some degree. I would just keep an open mind because there is a wide range of possible outcomes this season.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    PS: I don't think we hit 2.0. We shall see.
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