40/70 Benchmark

There is this younger, "know it all" type on Facebook that just can't wrap his mind around ONI and why the lagged nature of it is important. Just convinced el nino has been so much stronger than it has been because he obsesses over the daily SST numbers. One day while he was mocking me, he pointed out how "lagged" the ONI is, as if it invalidates it.....I was just shaking my head...like, finally you get it (sarcasm). He's is one of those kids that just scoffs at CPC and feels his own criteria should be used to define ENSO. Classic dearth of perspective that too often an inherent element of youth.

One thing I am very confident of is that this el nino will not be as a prominent a driver in the atmosphere as the robust ONI implies...this is why I have included moderate seasons in my preliminary composites. The ONI doesn't always necessarily tell the whole story, as we saw last year during the la nina.

It was the Old Farmer's Almanac.

Would make sense given the self-destructive nature of ENSO...definite "chicken or egg" deal...

This is exactly why I am befuddled by the "classic east-based el nino" comments. Doesn't mean it will end up favorable for eastern US winter enthusiasts, but it is what it is....aside from the SST configuration, that statement is factually incorrect.

No complaints.

I wouldn't notice since I check out for the summer.

This is what I am unsure of....last year it didn't cause a very strong PV, but you wonder if it took some time to fully infiltrate the atmosphere.

Yes. Totally agree.

How so?

Opposite this year haha.

Not with respect to the forcing, which is all that matters. Perhaps that changes as it couples more, but not as of yet. Most guidance doesn't forecast the forcing to change. We'll see.

Hyperbole, but you know what I mean.

I am pretty confident that the tropics aren't going to torpedo this winter. If we get porked again, then extra tropical influences will be the culprit.

Since gradients exists with every atmospheric phenomenon, including air pressure and SSTs, you can think of the ENSO ONI like the low pressure off of the east coast and the SSTS over the west PAC like the high pressure over the mid west...same type of system. Well, given that this is an el nino, the high ONI is analogous to a deep area of low pressure off of the east coast. But we would want to see lower SSTS over the west PAC to have a really strong SYSTEM, just like we would a strong high pressure over the mid west. But this year, we have a weak high (warm W PAC SSTS), so the gradient isn't there. Its like having the impressive 961mb low (ONI) with a paltry 1000mb high.

Think about it...what happens when you get a 498mb closed ULL pass under LI in the absence of any thermal gradient or baroclinicity? Well, once everyone finishes toweling themselves off, they realize that the forecast is for snow showers, which disappoints everyone, but Steve and Kevin. Right now, this el nino looks like a huge closed low without much baroclinicity to me...snowman23 is the one that will need to come to grip with reality once he towels himself off-

Weather is the product of gradients, not static measurements...remember that. We only care about the anomalous numbers due to their correlation with the stronger gradients and the fact that they look pretty in our dorky record books, but in and of themselves, they are pretty useless.....powerful shortwaves with no baroclinicity, so to speak.

Its true that its all about the forcing, but 2015 showed us that you still don't want it too strong...saving grace is that I don't think that this event will be as a prominent a driver as that event was given the ambient hemispheric environment, regardless of the ONI, which is what the MEI and RONI illustrate. An apt analogy is to think of the ONI in terms of barometric pressure.....people focus too much on the minimum central pressure with respect to both the tropics and mid latitude cyclones, but what really matters is the pressure gradient...ie the interaction with the ambient environment, which is what truly dictates the weather. ONI is analogous to minimum central pressure within this context....but we need to look around the globe and well beyond the tropics in order to truly ascertain how the weather will play out because that hemispheric gradient is what dictates everything. Period.

Yea...ideally, we would want a bit less blocking, but I would still take my chances with that level of blocking again....it always comes down to luck in the end, regardless of the pattern...just that the deck is more stacked in your favor in certain set ups.

Extreme violence.

The main concerns if you are looking for a good winter in the NE are 1994, 1972 and 1991. I feel like 1972 was just some bad luck, as the pattern wasn't as horrific as the result....but nonetheless, the PV did us in on both occasions. I have been saying it all spring and summer....the polar domain will decide this winter. I don't feel the Pacific will present a strong enough signal one way or another. If we can avoid a death star of a PV, then we should be okay. My primary concern is the volcano, as i feel strongly that is did us in with respect to both 1991 and 1994....New England did well in between because the shape, size and orientation of the PV, not unlike 2007-2008 (I realize it was la nina, just referencing it due to the PV). But that is a precarious path to take in a bonafide el nino...those (92-93 and 93-94) were warm neutral years. We will need to avoid a strong PV in this el nino.

Thanks for this....JMA doesn't go back as far as this data. Will definitely be borrowing this data and referencing you, of course. 1926-27, 1919-20, 1940-1941, 1957-1958 and 1965-1966...all great winters.

Agree RE 91-92..match in every aspect...I feel like Pinatubo is was doomed that winter with a very intense PV....while I doubt as dramatic an impact this season, it is on the table.

Great post...will def. keep this in mind come fall.

I hit 48.7.