40/70 Benchmark

I don't think anyone is planning on basing a seasonal forecast off of the RONI.....I think the value it provides is similar to the MEI in that it is a source of insight into how strongly ENSO may or may not manifest itself as a hemispheric driver relative to what may be deduced based soley on the ONI. Its just another tool. Looking back through the years historically speaking, it seems to me that it is a fairly solid tool in that respect. I agree it probably doesn't specifically correlate to any given index modality or temperature/snowfall trend for a given area in and of itself.

Wow, so solar max is a -NAO signal? I never would have thought...

Any data on solar activity on the polar domain during el Nino seasons? Intuitively, I feel as though active years, like this one, are more prone to a strong PV.....this was also the case in 1991 in addition to Pinatubo.

Classic east-based look.

We will also have to see if the forcing actually sets up that far west...maybe a bit east of that season.

@brooklynwx992009-2010 is a horrible solar analog....that is my primary issue with that season.

Well, not to trigger you....but I think GW would have a similar impact on tropical activity and snowfall....ie the ceiling is raised, but not necessarily "more" activity. Given that that Godzilla of a Pacific basin is also warming upstream, wind shear is also likely to become more prevalent IMO...not to mention perhaps more predominate SAL as the deserts cook. Folks just tend to overattribute and oversimplify the impact.

Yea, same page....had I taken the RONI conceptualization into consideration back in 2018 and 2019, it likely would have mitigated what were two absolute clunker-seasonal forecasting efforts those years. By far my two worst. I based everything on modest warm ENSO events that never coupled (2018-2019) and never really existed (2019-2020).

The largest wildcard for me this season is the impact of the volcano on the PV....I suspect that we will be fine unless we get #pinatuboed.

Regardless of whether its warm, the ceiling will be high.....especuially over the mid atlantic.

Not me....look at 2015-2016 in the mid atlantic.....hell, look at 1965-1966 everywhere.

Yes.

Onlyfans?

August is probably our most humid month...it lags a bit, where as peak heat is July...like winter in that peak cold climo is January, but snowfall is February. I am sure there is plenty of more runs on toilet paper to be had...but take any respite you can get this time of year.

Just like winter, its all about the mid levels...surface thermals just get the conversation started.

Yes, I know.

1972, as well....however, 1972 and 1991 lose points when considering the RONI AND MEI: 1972 AMJ RONI .80, MJ MEI 1.4 1982 AMJ RONI .68, MJ MEI 1.4 1991 AMJ RONI .44, MJ MEI 1.1 2023 AMJ RONI .07, MJ MEI 0.2 These numbers are much more in line with 1986 and 2009. My issue with 1986 is the PDO and lower solar.

Do you have a site or anything that I could give a shout out in reference? Not that I have a huge following, but every bit helps...it what be nice to get that info out the with the wealth of info that you bring to the table.

I expect the RONI and MEI to peak at around 1.5...so yes, a pretty strong driver....just not of the historic caliber that the ONI may suggest.

That isn't what I said and I am still not sure the ONI peaks over 2.0.

Older is more experienced.

Yea, incapable of engaging in constructive dialogue because he seems to use weather mastery as a means of eliciting a sense of competency that he hasn't achieved in his personal life, presumably at least partially due to addiction. I have been there....feel for him, but at the same time....wow. I try to never comment on his musings for that reason. He just cannot tolerate alternative points of view.

You have no idea how nauseating he can be....he DMs me...nice kid, but his viewpoint is so consumed by a myriad of compensatory defense mechanisms for which he has so little insight as a byproduct of his age. The end result is that I am condemned to pay for his slew of perceived inadequacies in life....f8%$. This as a product of the internet....this deranged co-dependency of sort with a surplus of information for which certain individuals just aren't equipped to cope with. What we end up with is an invaluable outlet for folks with MH and dependency issues, like the weather, actually ends up being intorwoven into and thus symptomatic or the dysfunction. And we all pay for it-

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