40/70 Benchmark

I'll bet on 60 in April every time over a 2-3' blizzard in winter.

My area may remain mired in the pork.

I was about to post, its still just 40.6 at my pad.

Yes, I think....it would cause it to mimic cool ENSO in some respects because both favor lower heights to the north.

Yea, its just about impossible to get a seasonal neg AO/NAO with a healthy east-based el nino. This is why orientation is so crucial because it is that which dictates the nature of the convective forcing that sets the Hadley/Rosby wave train in the mid latitudes. Now, if ENSO were to remain meager, then that is different....but I don't expect that.

The depth of the troughing is a bit exaggerated due to greater baseline ambient heights 50 years later, but it still sucks against 1951-2010 climo.

We need it to shift to at least centered around 140-150W by about November/December.

Look familiar out west?

PDO will definitely be higher...it has to...but how much? The fear is a 1972-1973 type of outcome, where the PDO remains negative and a higher end el nino is biased east.

Mean is probably about 1.8.

Yea, I could def. see basin wide, but I wouldn't be surprised to ultimately see a western tilt, whether or not its a true modoki or not. We'll see....just conjecture at this point. I won't really begin looking at it until the summer.

Kind of, but not as drastic....1993 had a hostile NAO region, but the AO was fairly negative for most of the season. 2014 was entirely Pacific driven.

That is the ceiling for ONI that I have been advertising, so would make sense to me if that is what he is implying...comparable to 2009/1957 (JUST ONI, NOT SEASONAL ANALOGS PER SE)..years like that. Strong, but not uber-strong.

Looks like I'm porked there....in that narrow sliver or real estate that enjoy the luxury of missing out on both winter and spring.....hopefully ma nature gives the winter orifice of choice a break and selects another hole to ravage-

March Forecast Offers Mixed Results Low Western heights Temper High Latitude Blocking & Active Storm Track The Eastern Mass Weather forecast for a very active and more wintry month of March had been well advertised dating back to the release of the winter outlook this past fall. The parallels drawn to the analogs of 1956 and 2018 were valid in the sense that there was in fact a second major disruption of the polar vortex. And this did in fact lead to another period of major late season high latitude blocking that ultimately led to a major mid month winter storm that resulted in over 3 feet of snow across the hills of northern Worcester county and the Berkshires. However, as evidenced by the 500mb chart above, the NAO block was largely offset by extremely low and persistent troughing over the western US. While lower western heights attributable to residual cool ENSO influence were anticipated, this was clearly more extreme than forecast. This obviously resulted in lower heights over the western US, and slightly elevated heights over the eastern US relative to the forecast, which may have played a role in the delayed phase of the major mid month winter storm that greatly mitigated snowfall impact over the coastal plane relative to expectation. Eastern Mass Weather Forecast H5 Composite Unsurprisingly, the March 1956 analog was plagued by the same issue greater western heights relative to 2023, which negated the fact that March 2023 featured even greater NAO blocking than 1956. The month or March was never expected to be as cold as March 1956 or 2018 across the eastern US due to the fact that the PV was displaced onto the other side of the globe. But was still milder than forecast over the eastern US due to persistence of very low western heights, which actually encompassed the western half of the AO domain space and also acted to bias the AO positive for the month. March temp forecast near normal for region: Reality was a few degrees above average: The precipitation forecast was decent in reflecting near normal precipitation across the region: But the active subtropical jet that has been pummeling California was missed.

Blocking and major storm window nailed, but deeper than expected western heights threw a wrench in things...probably related to the nipple low/delayed phase IMO. March Forecast Offers Mixed Results | Eastern Mass Weather

It was a tricky season...I can see why some other guys went big given factors that ultimately did lead to major NAO blocking, but I am glad I kept in my pants, so to speak. I remember fielding questions about why my seasonal snow totals weren't larger given the blocking implied. That said, still a lot to learn from others, like Raindance, who really did a good job with the sensible weather outcome. My work definitely left something to be desired...missing the modoki natutre or la nina was big for me....I am usually decent with that, but blew it this year.

I don't recall seeing any seasonal forecaster from the NE predicting well above normal snowfall or well below average temps there last year...can you name any?

You had me at rectal glue...

It was just a light film over the lawn and deck...didn't last too long.

Grass and deck coated...34.0

Snow mixing in.....Boooinnggggg 35.4

Where will it be next week...

Hell of a way to ring in a cold front-