40/70 Benchmark
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Everything posted by 40/70 Benchmark
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Problem with my area is I am often too far inland to get in on low level deformation near the coast, but not far enough inland to entirely avoid marine taint and get deformation areas to the west that the costal plane misses out on. I really need to thread a small needle to jackpot in a large event. My area is also far enough north to get fringed or miss some SNE deals, but seldom far enough north to clean up on NNE deals that SNE misses out on...I'll get "better scraps" than SNE, sure...
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El Nino 2023-2024
40/70 Benchmark replied to George001's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
I will say that that one was the most basin wide of the super events...I fell into that trap to a degree, too (not as badly as he apparently did)....and ended up too cool and snowy, though I was right about the blizzard. But, yea...no super event will be a modoki, per se. I think 2009-2010 was about as potent of a modoki as you will ever see, which in conjunction with a myriad of other solar/global/hemispheric factors explains why it was such a unicorn in the mid atlantic. -
Not as badly as this area the past 5 years.
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Exactly this.
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Yea, I will never get totally skunked like you...but I may get 23" instead of 33" in that 1/20 year big fish.
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Yes.
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For absolute jackpots, yes....but this is failure to sniff climo snowfall dating back over 5 years.
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Yes, but its been more extreme over the past several years.....not just se MA....south of pike, confluence, everything...
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That was a one off...you had been on that run since 2015.
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Since then-
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In hindsight, we are all Harvey Leonard.
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Other people when Olympic medals, but congrats to me on qualifying for the fucking Dutch Oven Invitational, I guess.
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But my point is for several years I have gotten boned in every decent season....the awful years, like this year and 2019-2020 are when I have done a little better. I mean, 'cmon.....show me a snowfall anomaly map for the last half decade, and it will illustrate my point perfectly. Goose egg right in ne MA.
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All frustration aside, I think its a prudent course of action to approach major threats at this point of the season with a good dose of skepticism.
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I thought 12z was the best.
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Its like telling an Indians fan, "Hey, you haven't won a title in 6 decades, but at least you won 61 games that one season...I only won 50".
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Trouble is I'd have to milk cows for a living...all set...even if I would get to do it on a hill.
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This is why I haven't sniffed a normal snowfall season in over half of a decade, yet I still have people slinging "at least"s at me....
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It still looks good, but 00z is more tempered.
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See, this is what irritates me....the "at least your suck beat my suck". I always get bent over in the good seasons, and then I get all of the shitty toys that no one wants. Maybe its me, but I would take next to nothing some seasons to hit it out of the park in some bigger years. May have to move closer to the coast.
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I takes a special kind of season to exhaust me with how passionate I am for winter storms, but this year did it...rare breed. No shortage of smoke with just about zero fire.
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That one last week tapped me out...I won't touch this unless it really looks imminent, and to be perfectly honest, I am rooting against it. I feel like the most likely outcome would be another round of blogs that will celebrate other areas getting big snow, while I get crap.
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The 00z EPS was decidedly less impressive.
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Hopefully it trends north.
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Bent over facing the south last January....facing the north most of this year, but mother nature threw me a curve last week and bent me over to the west.
