40/70 Benchmark

We have about a May 10 sun today.

Yes...around about the 10th...just like Feb.

This has nothing to do with the fact that the lower sun angle becomes palpable for the first time.

We always start hearing the crap about the sun getting higher, blah, blah....no denying tushys don't broil in the car as much in August.

8.39" IMBY during July.

.98".

Funny, I have been saying all summer on an anecdotal level how much this summer reminds me of 2009 out here. I really like the 1991 analog.

Not true for me....while it sucked (40.5" when average is about 62"), there are plenty of seasons that have featured less snowfall where I am....just south of me was historically bad. But for me it just a run of the mill clunker.

I'm just going to hit on the MEI and RONI.....I factor them into my intensity classifications, instead of going strictly on ONI.

From about my area near the NH border and up in latitude, the variance falls off....so the crap years, like last year, aren't as bad as the mid atl and most of SNE, but the great years usually not quite as good. This also means I can get kind of "stuck in the middle" for periods, which is why I haven't had an above average snowfall season since 2017-2018.

Yea, something tells me he wouldn't be all that miserable in a snow-barren land.

I'm a tropical weenie myself, but why set yourself up for disappointment... When there is a bonafide threat, I'll frequent this thread as much as anyone...save for maybe Scott....who is probably here more often than google.

Saw this posted before, he is incorrect in that 1957 was not east based.

Pretty cool article explaining how the delayed coupling of el nino is causing the S hemisphere winter to deviate from expectations....also calls into question just how strong it will ultimately grow. The Wet and Cold Australian Winter Seems to be Defying the Recent El Nino Alert and is in Stark Contrast to the Official Winter Weather Outlook (severe-weather.eu) If El Niño is not yet coupled, it suggests that the oceanic and atmospheric conditions in the tropical Pacific have not fully synchronized to create a well-defined El Niño event. The absence of coupling means that the typical atmospheric response and associated impacts on weather patterns may not be fully realised. It indicates that the development and strength of El Niño are still uncertain or not yet pronounced. Essentially, it is too early to know how significant this El Niño will be and certainly too early to be experiencing any direct impacts on our Australian winter weather.

I knew that would elicit a response from you.

Surprising to me, but it make sense because stronger forcing out near the dateline will have that impact. Confirms the theory that location of forcing is more important than intensity.

This shit ends next weekend, thankfully....pattern change.

There is both a narrow corridor for it to track and a narrow set of circumstances in general for a major impact from a tropical cyclone in this area....just one of them is missed, and its a forgettable day of breezy showers. In this day of social media, I get so tired of people whacking it to charts that belie what is a pretty high return rate event climatologically speaking.

Whoop-de-doo

I knew that was coming. IDK how anyone could have expected anything else after seeing that final game.

Stay safe, Paul.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz

Even if that verified, I would sleep right through it. It would be a ton of hype for what would end up relatively mundane sensible weather appeal. The main impact would be flood watches due to antecedent rainfall, but at the end of the day, it would just be more of what we have already experienced this summer for the vast majority.

See, 2014-2015 was the snowiest winter on record for much of my area, and the second snowiest for me personally...ditto with respect to 2004-2005 (third snowiest for me personally). That is all anyone really cares about TBH....its all about snowfall on this board.