40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I'm ready for change of season.

Gonna hold off on the post mortem write up in the hope that BOX updates that map....

Final Call for Protracted Blizzard Monday Night Into Wednesday Power Outages & Coastal Flooding Concerns in Largest Event of Season Dating back to last fall, Eastern Mass Weather utilized a combination of long range forecasting techniques, which included extensive ENSO analysis, identifying of both sensible weather and extra tropical Pacific analogs, to hone in on the first half of March as a window for a potentially memorable winter storm. With the passage of time, it had become apparent by latter February that the culmination of this window of opportunity would be during the second week of March. This due at last in part, to the lagged propagation of the major disruption of the stratospheric polar vortex, known as a Sudden Stratospheric Warming (SSW) that took place in during the middle portion of February. The timing of this evolution has resulted in a wonderful display of forecasting symmetry given that it coincides very closely with the year 1956, which was identified by Eastern Mass Weather as top ENSO and extratropical Pacific analog last fall. This is a season that also featured a potent bout of early season blocking that resulted in little snowfall across the area until the month of March. Here is how that month looked during the major winter storm that deposited 10-20"+ snowfall across much of the area on Mach 19, 1956. As compared to the synoptic 500mb pattern for early this week. While there are some differences, most notably the 500mb low is not diving as deeply to the south, this comparison is intended to convey similarities between the two respective winter seasons, than it is to imply synoptic comparisons to the storms, per se. Thus while the storm itself may not be a viable analog, the season is and it is no coincidence that a major storm appears imminent during this same timeframe 67 years later, which may result in a comparable snowfall. Synoptic Situation: The system will continue traveling eastward after traversing the state of Minnesota during the day on Sunday. Then on Monday, the system will begin to dig in response to a building upstream ridge over the Rockies. This ultimately causes it to begin interacting with a smaller parcel of energy moving up from the southern stream as the energy from the northern stream begins to infuse in to this system. Initially during the day on Tuesday, the two remain discrete entities. However, heights begin falling throughout the day on Tuesday as the northern stream energy begins phasing in during the afternoon and evening. And is complete just after by around midnight late Tuesday night and early Wednesday AM, which i when the storm peaks in intensity. And the new intense H5 low slowly drifts eastward on Wednesday, with the last of the significant snowfall exiting cape cod around midday. While the precise interaction between these two parcels of energy will determine where exactly the heaviest snow falls, the higher terrain locales are clearly favored for the greatest amounts due to increasing sun angle coupled with a marginal airmass. Expected Storm Evolution: Precipitation will break out during the day on Monday in advance of the main system over southwestern New England. This will result from an inverted trough due to the conduit of energy feeding in from the northern stream to feed the developing storm. And will begin as primarily rain the lower elevations and near the coast. This is due to the fact that it will be light in intensity, as heavy rates are needed to advect colder air from above downward in order to off set solar heating at this late juncture of the season. However, snow is likely from the onset over higher terrain. 7PM Monday: Snowfall should remain largely relegated to the higher terrain into Monday evening, as the most significant precipitation remains focused around the inverted trough, while lighter more sporadic precipitation overspreads the remainder of the region. 1AM Tuesday: Precipitation then overspreads the remainder of southern NewEngland Monday evening, beginning as rain near the coast and inside of rt 495, and snow further inland. Heaviest and steadiest precipitation continues to be focused on the inverted trough through the evening. Precipitation remains rain for much of the area during phase 1 of the storm, on Tuesday morning, due to warmer air being drawn in on a south southeasterly flow around an initial wave of weak low pressure moving into Connecticut. 7AM Tuesday: Warmest Point at 7am Tuesday North of this south southeasterly flow, a deep easterly fetch across the interior will cause down sloping in the Connecticut river valley, where significantly less snow will fall then other interior locations. Conversely, this will be an upslope flow that will enhance snowfall on the east slope of the Worcester hills and Berkshires. Ultimately this low, a reflection of the incoming northern stream energy, will begin to die out as the phase begins and energy translates eastward to meet the southern stream disturbance, which will allow heights to crash and temps to begin to drop during the day on Tuesday. Precipitation quickly changes to snowfall right down to cape cod by Tuesday evening, as a period of near blizzard conditions commences later in the evening, when snow grows steadier and heavier as the system matures offshore. 7PM Tuesday: Phase two of the storm begins Tuesday evening, as the strengthening solar irradiance begins losing the battle with snowfall by the evening commute. Travel becomes exceedingly difficult to impossible. Winds increase dramatically and combine with very heavy snowfall to produce blizzard conditions at times. The combination of heavy wet snow and strong winds will likely result in power outages, so please prepare accordingly. This is obviously the period when eastern areas pick up the majority of accumulation while the phased system reaches peak intensity just offshore. 1AM Wednesday: The most ferocious portion of the storm should last into the wee hours of the morning, with snowfall rates of 1-3" per hour and wind gusts out of the NW in excess of 50mph as the system begins to pull away. This could cause coastal flooding issues on the upper cape. Snow should begin tapering off by the Wednesday morning commute, but the damage will have been done and it should be a slow one. 7AM Wednesday: The last of the significant snowfall should exit the cape around midday, as the system slowly drifts away and winds taper down. 1PM Wednesday: FINAL CALL: FIRST CALL: Issued 3/11 @ 4AM

Yea, I get it...but it was clear to me several days out that someone high up would see 3'. Again, I have nothing to lose, though.....and I get burned sometimes, like I did here near the coast.

Makes sense, since she is at 1000' and you are at 990'.

I beat NWS in the jackpot areas, like where you live...but they were better near the coast.

I average like 65", which I haven't hit since 2017-2018.

I flipped about the same time...you had about an inch more than I did, though...makes sense being further west.

Even at work here in Chelsea....just patches most area, but I work on top of about a 200' hill and there is a solid inch or two.

Agree!!

Well, I have seen some seasons with much less snowfall, like 2011-2012 and 1994-1995, etc....so I can't fail it based upon that, but I totally get why you give it an 'F".

I obssess on the details...in the grande scheme of things, I identified this period back in early November and I did well highlighting the 30"+ in the jackpot areas...but feel like I kind of fumbled a bit on the 2 yardline..I should have known not to expect a big finish near the coast with parent mid level lows west...transfer was too late for that. I will do a postmortem and learn from it.

Maybe high on the list in in terms on hobbyists, but I'm no met haha. Thanks for the kind sentiment, though.

7.5" here. 40.5" on the season....IDK, your numbers were higher than mine, last season. Anyway, I give it a D.

@CT Rain and @CoastalWx...good call on my area. Nailed it. I remember that we were debating that point, and I like to give credit where its due.

I was dissapointed with my call close to the coast.....I wasn't wrong because of thermals, either....we just didn't get the big finale that was advertised, which is why from 495 points east came in several inches under my forecast. It actually flipped to snow earlier than I had thought, if anything.

Next one looks pretty clear cut rainer...and I'm okay with that. Ready to move foreward.

9" @ ASH sounds right...I had 7.5" about 15 mi or so to the east.

You had a nice second half of the event...that sucked here. I only got like 1.5" after 1pm. Had that not been a no-show, I would have hit my foot.

BTW, alot of those depth maps still had ORH hills at like 20"+...they had me like 7.9"...which was actually a tad high.

Yea, the terrain anomaly is you are in a downslope valley in a marginal east flow event. Not a shock

If you know how to use them, they work...just like any tool or guidance. Try to screw in a nail with a hammer and then tell me it doesn't work....no shit...

I must have said it ten times...they work for LOWER TERRAIN in MARGINAL situstions.

7.5" final here (40.5" on the season). Positive depth maps were perfect. Reason I was too high here was the backside just underwhelmed... had that came back for several hours like this AM, I would have been over a foot. Shame on me for going over a foot with marginal low levels and mid levels west.

Maybe a couple on inches later, but nothing crazy