40/70 Benchmark

If you look at Ben Noll's response below, he is advocating for use of the RONI as many of us here have been...implying that this isn't going to act like an upper echelon el nino, regardless of ONI. Doesn't necessarily mean it won't be another very mild winter, but it is what it is.

At the end of the day, you just never know.....who would have thought that a season which featured two historic -NAO blocks would also feature record low snowfall across much of the east coast. ....no relationship in meteorology is absolute and entirely independent of other variables. The guidance is seeing something and I won't be surprised if its right.

Happy to contribute and check it out. Thanks for sharing.

.80" early today.

Its going to be basin wide.

Thread banter at 9 month lead time? Link the forecast, please. That is one Twitter link you won't find lol I have said this before, but I completely check out every spring, so those early thoughts are always guesses...nothing more.

If this reaches an ONI of 2.5, I'll edit my screen name to snowman19ismydaddy. Take that to the bank.

1.64" today

I take....just like 2009

8.44" on the month IMBY. Onky hit 90 twice...90 on June 1 and 91 on June 2

I don't go back that far.

Obviously there are no guarantees and the low hanging fruit is to remind me of how bad last season was when I thought it would be near normal, but like last season, I am seeing signs that more often than not will lead to a decent winter. The blocking showed up last year and we are good with that 7-8 times out of 10, but the historic anomaly out west was tough to predict. Seasonal forecasters should be likened to an ensemble mean in medium range forecasting.....its tough to ever forecast something that extreme at the outer edge of the forecast range. Yea, the -PDO was predictable, but that was obscene.

Add this to the list.

I feel like there is plenty of reason for optimism RIGHT NOW.

I will defer to you on this, but I thought 1986-1987 was closer to solar min than this year, which is why I felt like 1957 was a closer match.

Likewise.....I feel like 1957 is better, though for both solar and ENSO.

Take.

I think John would agree that it is mildly reassuring to see some of these favorable seasonal solutions in that a power-house canonical el nino is not a given.

Well, if you are "vapid", than HM is vapid-lite.

1.23" today. 4.17" since Saturday....of course, my jackpot bonanza regression comes in June.

I agree with HM on the peak....ie 1.6-1.8.

1957 also looks like a decent solar match.

1.6-1.9 ONI....and then when you factor in the W PAC warm pool that is pulling the forcing closer to the dateline, the Relative ONI would probably be like 1.3-1.6. This is why I included moderate el nino events in my first composite last week. Something like 1957 and 1986 is very possible.