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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Mar 2010 -0.16 Feb 2010 0.25 Jan 2010 0.05 Dec 2009 -0.51
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Modestly negative.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honestly, -PDO seasons often have an area that gets screwed, but its not always the mid Atlantic....its often further north. I t could be my area.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think is going to be an active STJ and N stream.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Never been on board for that. I'm in your camp on that range.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    It should peak at moderate IMO.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Man, what a shitty day...
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sad day....lost a friend of over 20 years late last night/early this AM....got a sinking feeling when his brother called me on my way to work. Just brutal.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hopefully not.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    5.2" will do, but a jack, nonetheless....a CJ of water lol
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    True, though I was close this AM.....balmy first half of October, nonetheless.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, first half of October is indian summer.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yes, but its getting close with no end in sight. And I will do the honors myself.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Honest to god...I hope it continues because from about here on out, I am all eyes and ears for winter to tip its hand. There are going to be precip type issues, but just give me coastals.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree all around.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, that incorporation of GW into the background of these analogs is tacit AFAIC...I am on record as not debating that point.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think 2001 was a decent analog last season and I wish I gave it more weight in the mean than I did..it was one of my better sensible weather matches.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. I honestly didn't know...like I said, I only look back to 1950. I only mentioned 1925 because snowman and Paul Roundy mentioned it as a very good analog for this el nino, which they perceive as being a classic east based event.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    Maybe 1925 also meets that criteria...IDK. I only consider back to 1950.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    This kind of an outcome would make sense to me.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    So you don't think the MEI matters much... Okay, fair enough....the only example of what you are suggesting is 1965, which had a peak ONI of 2.0, MEI of 1.6 and RONI of 2.00. I think that is reasonable.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think its suspect bc +IOD correlates to canonical el nino and +AO/NAO. The increased moisture I can buy.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    @snowman19 Do you agree this is a fair assessmenet? I would wager RONI being a bit lower than that and MEI a touch higher.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    No doubt we see a jump between now and November, but I don't see it getting above 1.5, at most. I would say like 1.2 to 1.4
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    I think you have touched upon part of the reason why PDO and PNA are not necessarily always matched on a seasonal level.
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