40/70 Benchmark

Without having looked, I can just about guarantee you that the EPO was negative that season, which explains the cold delivery post storm despite the -PNA/+NAO/+AO. No other way to explain it.

I mean, think about it...how much snow do you normally get in VA with -PNA/+NAO combo?

Will probably end up basin wide.... Canadian doesn't look unreasonable.

There was some bad luck, but it was also probably a lot of deals where the cold would come in between storms....with no blocking and -PNA, the storms would cut and flip to rain, cold comes in behind, rinse and repeat.

No arguments with that....1957, 1965 and 1972 camp, most likely...all of which occurred during -PDO portion of multi decadal cycle. 2/3 featured a great deal of blocking....like I said, ENSO in and of itself should not be a deal breaker. Maybe winter will be awful like 1972, which is totally possible....but its not a given.

I don't think the larger scale multi decadal cycle flipped....if you look throughout history, there are smaller scale ENSO induced flips in the midst of the overall multi decadal canvass. That is what that was...not sure how there is any debate after these past few years.

This is the most impressive multi decadal shift to -PDO since the 50's.....so maybe we can get a 57-58 redux like we almost got a March 1956 redux. 1972-1973 was the inverse of this....ENSO induced -PDO interval in the midst of a larger +PDO multi decadal canvass. Here, we are due for a +PDO interruption to the larger scale -PDO, so coupled with the crude logic of being mindful of my unprecedented string of 5 consecutive well below average snowfall seasons, I am inclined to hedge towards a 1957-1958 outcome. Then again, the 1950s also featured a a stretch of about 5.5 years with NO +PDO months.....and we snuck one in at the end of 2019, so who knows...

I'll have to look at it during the off season....I need to stop. I'm starting to ramp up before I want to lol

I will say one thing, give us this past year's blocking episodes next year and we will do okay. I know the PDO will be less hostile and its very likely that our luck will, as well.

Paul, the main determinant in those winters you listed is blocking....my point above is that a basin wide ENSO event is not prohibitive to that. We have two avenues to avoiding yet another terd....flip the PDO and/or get blocking. 1972-1973 is one end of the spectrum with a basin wide el nino (two swings/two misses), and 1957-1958 is the other (two swings/two hits). The smart early money is that we hit on one and miss one.

I was just saying the same thing in the main forum thread...hadn't read this lol I didn't cite that source? Shit...I usually do. A significant cooling event continues in the Stratosphere due to the large Water Vapor cloud, but can it impact the upcoming Winter Season? » Severe Weather Europe (severe-weather.eu)

I couldn't care any less about what the Canadian has over the polar domain for winter at this lead time....has about as much value to me as 99.9% of the posts in OT.

Assuming el nino is not heavily east biased, extra tropical influences on the polar domain will also be of the utmost importance. If we can muster up some intense episodes of blocking like we did this past season, then we should be okay. 1972-1973 was void of that, and 1957-1958 was defintely not....so again, this tells me that the character of el nino, as depicted on the Canadian, is not prohibitive to the development of high latitude blocking during the ensuing cold season.

It looks to be like the length of these decadal -PDO cycles is usually anywhere from about 5-10 years. And we look to have begun this one in about 2017, so while it is possible we are about ready to end it, its more likely that we have a couple of years left statistically speaking. That said, a shift to warm ENSO is ordinarily the impetus for change. Whether or not this one flips it is likely the difference between a 1957-1958 type of evolution, or a 1972-1973.

Best match all around is probably 1972-1973, but the fact that 1957-1958 is similar in the ENSO region confirms my suspicion that that ENSO el nino orientation, as depicted is not a death knell in and of itself...just need to hope the Pacific gets a little better than that model suggests.

Canadian kind of resembles 1957 in the ENSO region, but the PDO doensn't look as high.

Candian looks like a basin-wide event to me...I definitely would not call it a modoki, but not heavily east based, either....slight eastern lean, but that doesn't look like a death knell-non-starter to me.

Quite a dichotomy evident amongst those 6 winters....3 great ones for the NE, and 3 terds.

Agree with high-end mod to strong, but not uber-strong. That has been my thought.

Since the 2014-2015 unicorn, been three consecutive mild and well below average snowfall warm ENSO events for my area, if you want to talk about being "due"...warm ENSO is normally the east coast's bread and butter.

2006-2007 was east based....we also had an uber event in 2015.

50.5

That is my point.