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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    This is in line with my preliminary ideas.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Those winters are all near or over 100", so sure...I'll bet against a top 10 winter....robust el nino isn't a high-end snowfall ENSO phase for SNE, anyway...2002-2003 is the only one on there. It's better for mid alt. Strong STJ means alot of LBSW deals.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    Well, yea...I said that, too. No one cares about that, though....just want the snow.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    Or a mid-winter bang, a la 1987.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    I mean, there is an easy path for this winter to suck...not desputing that. But the Pacific would need to change and I am not seeing much guidance suggests that it will. I think overall, we are going to continue in a shitty cycle for several more years, but this season is our reprieve.
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Reassess after I drop my next blog.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    You had been optimistic.....what changed? I am increasingly optimistic.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    Added .02" after midnight, so 1.24" event total. 5.29" on the month.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.22" on the day 5.27" on the month.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's just magnitude of the anomaly, but also the aerial coverage...they both play a role....kind of like ACE with respect to hurricanes.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    All I am trying to say is that I see why this time can be different...I also see how it won't end up different. It could go either way.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    My thought exactly...I won't mention what season that reminds me of, by it begins with 2 and ends with 0.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Raindance, what are your thoughts on the West PAC warm pool, assuming it persisits, potentially pulling the forcing west of what would normally be expected given the orientarion of the ENSO ssts. I think this is why the Canadian along with some other guidance does that.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Great research, but intuitively speaking, I would expect that ONI threshold to move higher in the face of a warmer planet.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    If the el nino ends up that intense, and the west Pacific cools, which would move the mean seasonal vp east of current guidance, then it would be a blow torch. Let's try this....if the ONI peaks around 2.0 and the forcing sets up near the dateline because the anomalous west PAC warmth remains even more extreme and expansive than that within the ENSO region, how do you feel the winter would play out, snowman?
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    Not sure how it can argued that a warmer global climate doesn't modify intense el nino events somewhat.
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I need more information....what does the west PAC look like and where does the VP set up? And I think above normal snowfall is much more likely than below normal temps, regardless.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I would bet anything its because most of those strong el nino, neg NAO events were modoki, or at least westward leaning....and probably mostly solar ascending, too.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I didn't get it, either...he must be conforming to twitter by being lazy and focusing on SSTs....its like obsessing on model precip type algorithms when you have a powerful closed H5 s of LI and a strong Hi over se Canada in the dead of winter.
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not worried about the ONI number...my focus in on H5 and vp.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    That Aleutian low doesn't look to hug the coast that closely to me, which is why you get the lower heights over the se and higher heights over the arctic. I'd take my chances with that CFS output...especially the 1957 analog.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    Sure, which is why its puzzling that you seem to exude confidence that this winter will evolve as a typical super-east based event. Its not necessarily that simple. But in the mean time, all we can do is post guidance and speculate, like you are.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Any update?
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, my main takeaway is that it doesn't favor a strong PV...not that its a slam dunk for weak.
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