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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't agree. I would take a weak event, regardless of orientation ....the reason you have good events that were weaker Modoki, like 2000-2001 and 2008-2009 is because other, extratropical elements take on more importance with respect to the predominate forcing. 1983-1984 was decent, too....even 2016-2017.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nice post and good take.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    That's where I am at...4 months of trying to be objective didn't get me anywhere. Its gotta look imminent at this point.
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    The key to having a shot in Modoki is remaining weak and/or having a very high ACE.
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
    My list since 1950 is: 1973-1974, 1983-1984, 1988-1989, 1998-1999, 2000-2001, 2008-2009, 2011-2012, 2016-2017 and 2022-2023
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    Nobody knows for certain, but mainly rain for in SNE for all of March is a safe bet.
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's not a Modoki at all.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    On what planet was 2010-2011 a Modoki La Nina?
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't see how it can be much worse anywhere east of the Mississippi and north of about 40* latitude.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    It's the EURO KEV
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    You are right that its worth watching...weather is humbling, as we saw with respect to that Feb 13th deal.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    And I did a whole write up about how awful the forecast was. I don't see the parallel.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    I don't think it's useless to say odds are against it.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, same feeling on this.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    What is your point? This one will trend very far south because that one did?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    I'm not...if it looks good mid week, then I'll have to. I have a better shot than you do, though....I think the 1/7 hit zones is the southern goal post.
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    No mas instaliones?
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    Why would I ever take up following severe weather threats? We have @weatherwizfor that-
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    Unreal....I had a good month of February, and guidance agreed at the start of the month, only to have it whiff.....now I have a torch March, which guidance originally agreed with and now of course it will be the best month. I need a new hobby...some low hanging fruit like stamp collecting.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Actually, I would take e 16 over it this go around.
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    I still think it ends up north of 1/7 and most of us are mainly rain, but we'll see.....
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    e48 seems to always be a good time...my fav member.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    You can see why I mentoned the 1/6-7/2024 analog....that NE ridge retrograding north portending a system with that kind of snowfall distribution.
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