40/70 Benchmark

I'm not sure how many times you want me to say I was wrong.....sucked, suck, stink, stank, stunk. The issue with you is that your thought process is so reductive that you can't see the forest through the trees....you throw a temper tantrum and disparage any long range efforts when they run contrary to snow/cold. The reason why I feel the next few years will suck is the same reason my past 2 outlooks have sucked...its because of what is going on in the west PAC. I do think it will eventually change, but not a for a few years.

Flooding.

Having trouble finding the anomaly maps on that site...

This is true, but to be fair, so isn't this....

It defitely requires an adjustment that I have struggled to make.

You get so defensive when someone doesn't milk your snowman prostate.

For the most part, a very mild and snowless December in La Niña is a very bad sign.

Not me....I was out over a month ago. My overall outlook was a fail, but I was never in on a big ending.

I agree in an absolute sense....ie biased warmer everywhere. However, where I think the debate is more fervent is with respect to why the eastern CONUS has been getting boned so much more than the west. I am not sold on that imbalance being entirely a product of CC, whereas the general background warming is. I still believe the imblanace is more of a cyclical phenomenon.

I think most would sign for that winter right now given the shit we have been force-fed of late.

Odds are we will see a flatter Aleutian ridge, which isn't so great. The key in a Modoki La Nina is to keep it weak, which looks unlikely.

Thing is if Canada is cold, which is more likely in a La Nina, then you can get lucky due to the shape/orientation of the PV...a year like 2007-2008 should have sucked on paper. But tough to predict something like that....

Yea, even the few times there is some cold around, it just never links up.

That said, I would be suprised if next season is good...I could see somehow avoiding a ratter with a bit of luck, which we are "due" for.

You laugh, but honestly...past couple I felt would be somewhat mild with climo like snowfall and they have been brutal.

Well, early sentiment is for a healthy Modoki La Nina working in conjunction with a +QBO/descending solar...doesn't take a CC zealot to know to temper expectations. We probably have about 3-4 more bleh-ish seasons before we catch a break in the latter half of the 2020s is my guess.....probably at least one big season as the Pacific changes and we near solar min. Yes, I understand what a shot in the dark that speculation is....again, "just my (educated) 'guess' ". We really need a decent season fast because its become increasingly exhasting around this place....you need so many qualifiers so someone doesn't bite your head off.

I think there are pretty low expectations for next season.

Glad I checked out mid Feb. Happy "tracking"...

Today was nasty...only topped out at 42

My last one was a Davis...tried Ambient this go around and its worth it because its much, much cheaper, more user friendly and not a huge downgrade in terms of accuracy.

You have an Ambient, too!

I'll start taking a mild interest after the weekend if it looks for real...otherwise, I have been checked out for about a month.

Strong Modoki La Nina

They can kiss my ass. I learned from that experience, though...now in huge events, I always report snowfall and snowdepth.