40/70 Benchmark

I think significant threat is from around my area and northward on the CP.

It may not trend as far south as everyone in SNE would like, but I don't expect this to march northward.

Not necessarily...interior valleys are worse than the interior CP....especially north.

I don't do April....DM. But we are due for some positive regression after having missed so many opportunities over the past few years.

Wow.....

That doesn't really matter....Antartica is pretty vast, but stunningly the area doesn't get many hits on the web.

Yea, I'll defer to you on that.....I didn't analyze anything. Just took a quick peakabo at the Dopamine supply on that run. 06z GFS has that same general idea judging by the clown...familiar cut-off right around the NH border.

AI is a repeat of the last few.....NNE.

I'm about 24-30 hours away from doing it...

By "good" I mean above average snowfall....I agree legit "cold" winters are probably like a 1/10 occurrence at this point.

Lets not get too carried away with the CC shit, either.... "the no more good winter" rhetoric is just as reprehensible as the CC denial. An extremely positive WPO with a death vortex over the Bering sea coupled with a -PDO El Nino would have always been bad news.....so it was plus 7 instead of plu 5.5. The Pacific was absolutely horrid....again.

Me neither...its like an inch or two of trasnparent slush here.

I had 2010 in there twice, too.

Hopefully a nice tropical season en route...would love to have a tent city in Tolland by October 1.

March 2012 was a monthly analog of mine, albeit not the primary one...1973 was. The truth is that I needed the colder shift to have a prayer of verifying and my range of +2 to +4 will probably still end up too cool. I'll do the monthly recap this weekend...should be rather short and (not) sweet.

People can post all of the pretty charts and H5 plots they would like, at the end of the day the month is like +5 with just about zero snowfall throughout most of SNE.

Incredible how much time I have saved since disengaging in mid Februay....grand total since........... 1".

I need to cancel the subscriptions today so I don't get charged for tracking drizzle in April.

I see 2-3 crazy ones for SNE.

What you are engaging is drizzle

Well, its a factor...like everything else. As a starting point, its common sense to first consider La Nina seasons if expecting a La Nina......but obviously these outlooks are getting more difficult becasuse there are an increasing number of forces at play as a result of CC. Its funny because on the one hand, its easier since 9/10 seasons are biased warm...but the catch is that its getting more difficult to get the rationale for the warmth right within the context of a given season, aside from the background CC trend. For instance, most of predicted warmth simply because of a canonical strong El Nino were not right.

In my view, you need to satisfy two conditions to be taken seriously with respect to Outlooks... 1) Get it right from time to time and have well reasoned/ data-supported forecasts... 2) Maintain some modicum of humility and accept failure... In my experience, the most accurate forecasters don't necessarily meet these criteria, if you catch my drift.

I'm not losing sleep, dude.....but all you can do is either laugh about it, or be an ass and project said failure onto others.

Yea, well....it takes me several weeks to compile data and garner insight in order to make the most well informed, garbage Outlook in the history of garbage Outlooks. As far as solar nadir snowfall....same page-