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40/70 Benchmark

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  1. 40/70 Benchmark
    Couple this with the residual cold ENSO/Pacific and wonder if the N stream storm influence this coming winter is being underplayed right now. The RONI and MEI should eventually edge into moderate territory, though.
  2. 40/70 Benchmark
    Funny you make this point because in my blog post today, I likened this event to the weak composite and chose not to with respect to the modoki composite because that has some healthier events in it. This is just weak sauce right now....its essentially weak and my sensible weather composite bares that out...echoes the MEI and RONI.
  3. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yikes, Merrimack plunge if this were winter
  4. 40/70 Benchmark
    This in a nutshell is why the MEI, RONI and forcing pattern look different from past intense events.
  5. 40/70 Benchmark
    High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather
  6. 40/70 Benchmark
  7. 40/70 Benchmark
    High Confidence in Evolution of ENSO Allows for Shift of Focus to Concurrent Sensible Weather | Eastern Mass Weather
  8. 40/70 Benchmark
    I have started using sensible weather analogs by ENSO state...its a good way to keep the forecast composite "honest" becuase I have years like 1982 and 2015 in there, which I know damn well are to strong for ENSO....but they are decent matches the pattern.
  9. 40/70 Benchmark
    One thing to keep an eye on is that it looks as though guidance has continued to rush the progression of warmer waters to the west throughout the summer and into the fall....IE a positive bias with respect to the EMI.
  10. 40/70 Benchmark
    1957, 1965 and 1991 seems like good ONI analogs.....with 1994 and 2015 being the best EMI analogs. Of course, RONI and MEI are another story altogether.
  11. 40/70 Benchmark
    I could see OND...like the statistical mean. But if you feel strongly, then go with your gut....I just use guidance and historical benchmarks, as I am certainly no expert on tropical Pacific weather patterns. But I feel like the late start (region 3.4) may be a red flag against a fast peak.
  12. 40/70 Benchmark
    Considering the 60's featured a predominately very weak PV, this underscores the importance of refraining from the generalization of events, much like we have learned to do with respect to ENSO.
  13. 40/70 Benchmark
    Agree on the range, but most guidance has NDJ or at least OND.
  14. 40/70 Benchmark
    Yea, I forecast using ranges in increments of .3 for the sake of verification....only reason for the difference.
  15. 40/70 Benchmark
    Me neither....most of those +IOD/el nino seasons had other prominent factors that contributed to the ++AO/NAO IMHO.
  16. 40/70 Benchmark
    Hilighted years are la nina/el nino.
  17. 40/70 Benchmark
    1963-1964 is an interesting case....basin-wide, moderate el nino with +IOD and descending solar.....I never would have guessed it would have been a cooler, blockier winter. My guess is descending solar maybe less of a detriment when near minimum, like Larry was saying. Maybe a volcanic influence (Agung)?
  18. 40/70 Benchmark
    Negative IOD years 1960 1964 1974 1981 1989 1992 1996 1998 2010 2014 2016 2021 Positive IOD years 1961 1963 1972 1982 1983 1994 1997 2006 2012 2015 2019
  19. 40/70 Benchmark
    I Like those graphics. Thanks.
  20. 40/70 Benchmark
    https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/DMI/
  21. 40/70 Benchmark
    1.7 to 1.9 for the sake of specificity.
  22. 40/70 Benchmark
    Do you have the warm phase version of that graphic? TIA...
  23. 40/70 Benchmark
    At this point, I think a blend of the statistical and dynamic works.
  24. 40/70 Benchmark
    Thanks. Aligns pretty well with my thoughts.
  25. 40/70 Benchmark
    Fair enough. Thanks.
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