40/70 Benchmark

Yea, I can imagine anything greater than 1.5 for MEI peak.

Yes, but it never coupled...acted like a la nina.

+1 to +2F sounds reasonable to me.

Yes. Been in line with my thoughts all along.

I don't entirely agree with this. I'm sure the warmer gulf stream has an impact, but a record RNA is going to cause some higher heights over the se...especially since the NAO was near neutral in the mean for the month.

Shocking-

I would have to go back and look at the mid month event specifically, but I agree with this for the most part.

It's always important to keep an open mind. ...Back on 8/12 I posted why I don't feel the polar domain is the slam dunk that some think it is this year.

I wonder how long until this isn't ignored....

Well, I'm not arguing that any given month would have been colder 60-70 years ago...again, I am not disputing global warming. However, that evolution of that big pre xmas event would have been mainly rain for the NE 300 years ago is my point. Last December would have sucked for snowfall, regardless.

Zzzzzzzzzzzzzzzz...

First of all, you don't need to back that up. Global warming is real and I am not debating that. I'm sure it is impacting things, but but bad breaks like we got last December have always been, are and always will be more prevalent in a flawed pattern. We had an extreme -PNA in conjunction with that NAO block...that is why we had the rige over se Canada and the se US. The truth probably lies somewhere in the middle.

The overattributation of global warming is mind numbing.

I don't think a record RNA helping to induce an early phase would have led to a snowy outcome for the northeast in 356BC, either. The PV lobe last December got pinned to the west of the the downstream NAO block and phased with a western SW. That has nothing to do with global warming. In the mean, the month of December had an intense RNA and a near neutral NAO with one waisted block flex. Anyway, IDK..the west PAC looks alot different than 1997 to me. That doesn't mean we can't have a mild winter...just saying.

Well, CFS is also advertising a mild winter....

That is more feasible.

Its tougher to judge in the warm season, though...forcing in August doesn't always behave the same as it does in January.

Welcome. Glad to have you. "Forcing" refers to the concentration of convection over the tropical Pacific, which produces convergence and upward ascent at the surface and divergence/descent alot. This is what sets the rosby wave train in motion and heavily influences the MJO.

I thought it could remain moderate last spring, but by summer it was clear to me that it would be strong.

Gold. This is a great illustration of the evolution of my mindset over the past several years. Circa 2018 was the top...I was making fun of Raindance being an arrogant prick fall 2018, before he handed me my ass that season. Then the "This is complicated" sentiment is me this year.

Good post. I feel like if snowman could covey a bit more modesty and insight, he wouldn't take as much crap.

Agree. Even the "cold" stretches I can see behing dampened by some milder overnight lows.

Btw, I have never said nor do I think this will be a cold winter.

But those are the type of "smaller scale nuances" that a record -PDO leaves you more prone to. That is like saying, "it didn't cut because of the +NAO, it cut because the trough went negative over the Mississippi River". If we had a run-of-the-mill -PDO, some of those would have worked out.

That is more bad luck, IMO....I will say that maybe myself, along with others should have factored that in and erred more conservatively as the season progressed, but then you're bordering on persistence forecasting. And by "fine", I mean not historically bad...serviceable...which is all I forecasted last year, despite what snowman19 said.